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Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its Determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Sanjeev Gupta

    (Center for Global Development)

  • João Tovar Jalles

    (Universidade de Lisboa
    ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa
    Universidade Nova de Lisboa
    IPAG Business School)

  • Jianhong Liu

    (Center for Global Development)

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate short- and long-term tax buoyancy for 44 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during 1980–2017 using time series and panel techniques. We find that the long-term tax buoyancy is either one or slightly above one for most SSA countries. Fragile states have a lower short-term tax buoyancy reflecting their institutional weaknesses. Short-term buoyancy of personal income tax is significantly less than one. Both short- and long-run tax responses are lower than those reported in previous cross-country studies, which can be interpreted as a reduced power of both automatic stabilization in the short run and fiscal sustainability in the long run. We find that central government debt and shadow economy exert a downward pressure on tax buoyancy. An important implication of these results is that the current tax systems in SSA would not be able to generate domestic revenues to the extent needed for financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjeev Gupta & João Tovar Jalles & Jianhong Liu, 2022. "Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its Determinants," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 890-921, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:29:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10797-021-09694-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-021-09694-x
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax buoyancy; Sustainable Development Goals; Error Correction Model; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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