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Stock market as a nowcasting indicator for real investment

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  • Stavros Degiannakis

Abstract

The paper proposes a novel method to assess whether real investment can be nowcasted based on information that is available on the stock market. The stock market index on a daily sampling frequency is assessed as a predictor of gross fixed capital formation on a quarterly sampling frequency. For France, Germany, Greece, and Spain (four representative countries of eurozone), we find significant empirical evidence that the information from the stock market does produce accurate nowcasting values of gross fixed capital formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavros Degiannakis, 2022. "Stock market as a nowcasting indicator for real investment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 911-919, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:41:y:2022:i:5:p:911-919
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2838
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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