IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/envmet/v31y2020i5ne2619.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the duration and size of extended attack wildfires as dependent outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Dexen DZ. Xi
  • C.B. Dean
  • Stephen W. Taylor

Abstract

Understanding the complex relationship between the duration and size of forest fires is important in order to better predict these key characteristics of fires for fire management purposes in a changing climate. Describing this relationship is also important for our fundamental understanding of fire science. Here, we develop and utilize novel techniques for characterizing the distribution of multiple outcomes related to a specific event, placed in the fire science context. In this framework, we jointly model time spent (duration), in days, and area burned (size), in hectares, from ground attack to final control of a fire as a bivariate survival outcome using two broad methodologies: a copula model that connects the two outcomes functionally and a joint modeling framework that connects the two outcomes with a shared random effect. We compare these two methodologies in terms of their utility and predictive power. We also consider how longitudinal environmental variables (e.g., precipitation, drought indices) are best incorporated in this context and the challenges related to the complexity of computation associated with the analysis of two outcomes considered jointly.

Suggested Citation

  • Dexen DZ. Xi & C.B. Dean & Stephen W. Taylor, 2020. "Modeling the duration and size of extended attack wildfires as dependent outcomes," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:31:y:2020:i:5:n:e2619
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2619
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/env.2619?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoder, Jonathan & Gebert, Krista, 2012. "An econometric model for ex ante prediction of wildfire suppression costs," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 76-89.
    2. Wu, Shaomin, 2014. "Construction of asymmetric copulas and its application in two-dimensional reliability modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 476-485.
    3. E. Juarez‐Colunga & G. L. Silva & C. B. Dean, 2017. "Joint modeling of zero‐inflated panel count and severity outcomes," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1413-1423, December.
    4. Wenqing He & Jerald F. Lawless, 2005. "Bivariate location–scale models for regression analysis, with applications to lifetime data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(1), pages 63-78, February.
    5. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    6. Pier-Olivier Tremblay & Thierry Duchesne & Steven G Cumming, 2018. "Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Komarek, Arnost & Lesaffre, Emmanuel, 2008. "Bayesian Accelerated Failure Time Model With Multivariate Doubly Interval-Censored Data and Flexible Distributional Assumptions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 523-533, June.
    8. Edward Frees & Emiliano Valdez, 1998. "Understanding Relationships Using Copulas," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25.
    9. Denwood, Matthew J., 2016. "runjags: An R Package Providing Interface Utilities, Model Templates, Parallel Computing Methods and Additional Distributions for MCMC Models in JAGS," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 71(i09).
    10. C.X. Feng & C.B. Dean, 2012. "Joint analysis of multivariate spatial count and zero‐heavy count outcomes using common spatial factor models," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 493-508, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohamad Khoirun Najib & Sri Nurdiati & Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, 2022. "Multivariate fire risk models using copula regression in Kalimantan, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1263-1283, September.
    2. Dexen D. Z. Xi & Charmaine B. Dean & Stephen W. Taylor, 2021. "Modeling the duration and size of wildfires using joint mixture models," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dexen D. Z. Xi & Charmaine B. Dean & Stephen W. Taylor, 2021. "Modeling the duration and size of wildfires using joint mixture models," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), September.
    2. Mahdiyeh, Zahra & Kazemi, Iraj, 2019. "An innovative strategy on the construction of multivariate multimodal linear mixed-effects models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Liu, Xiang-dong & Pan, Fei & Cai, Wen-li & Peng, Rui, 2020. "Correlation and risk measurement modeling: A Markov-switching mixed Clayton copula approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Prabhash Kumar & Patil Vijay M & Noronha Vanita & Joshi Amit & Bhattacharjee Atanu, 2016. "Bayesian Accelerated Failure Time and its Application in Chemotherapy Drug Treatment Trial," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 671-690, December.
    5. Kumar Prabhash & Vijay M Patil & Vanita Noronha & Amit Joshi & Atanu Bhattacharjee, 2016. "Bayesian Accelerated Failure Time And Its Application In Chemotherapy Drug Treatment Trial," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 671-690, December.
    6. Alexina J. Mason & Manuel Gomes & James Carpenter & Richard Grieve, 2021. "Flexible Bayesian longitudinal models for cost‐effectiveness analyses with informative missing data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(12), pages 3138-3158, December.
    7. Edgar C. Merkle & Daniel Furr & Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, 2019. "Bayesian Comparison of Latent Variable Models: Conditional Versus Marginal Likelihoods," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 84(3), pages 802-829, September.
    8. Cindy Xin Feng, 2015. "Bayesian joint modeling of correlated counts data with application to adverse birth outcomes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 1206-1222, June.
    9. Craiu, V. Radu & Sabeti, Avideh, 2012. "In mixed company: Bayesian inference for bivariate conditional copula models with discrete and continuous outcomes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 106-120.
    10. Lawless, Jerald F. & Yilmaz, Yildiz E., 2011. "Comparison of semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation and two-stage semiparametric estimation in copula models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 2446-2455, July.
    11. Fabrizio Durante & Erich Klement & Carlo Sempi & Manuel Úbeda-Flores, 2010. "Measures of non-exchangeability for bivariate random vectors," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 687-699, September.
    12. Buddhavarapu, Prasad & Bansal, Prateek & Prozzi, Jorge A., 2021. "A new spatial count data model with time-varying parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 566-586.
    13. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    14. Jesse Elliott & Zemin Bai & Shu-Ching Hsieh & Shannon E Kelly & Li Chen & Becky Skidmore & Said Yousef & Carine Zheng & David J Stewart & George A Wells, 2020. "ALK inhibitors for non-small cell lung cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Christina Leuker & Thorsten Pachur & Ralph Hertwig & Timothy J. Pleskac, 2019. "Do people exploit risk–reward structures to simplify information processing in risky choice?," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 76-94, August.
    16. Francois Olivier & Laval Guillaume, 2011. "Deviance Information Criteria for Model Selection in Approximate Bayesian Computation," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, July.
    17. Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
    18. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    19. Rubio, F.J. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Inference for grouped data with a truncated skew-Laplace distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 3218-3231, December.
    20. Wu, Shaomin & Wu, Di & Peng, Rui, 2023. "Considering greenhouse gas emissions in maintenance optimisation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1135-1145.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:31:y:2020:i:5:n:e2619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1180-4009/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.