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Information, Agreement Design, and the Durability of Civil War Settlements

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  • Michaela Mattes
  • Burcu Savun

Abstract

Civil war is usually examined from the perspective of commitment problems. This approach provides considerable insight regarding which civil war agreement provisions reduce the chance of renewed fighting. Yet, additional insight can be gained by examining information asymmetries as a potential cause of civil war recurrence. We argue that significant uncertainty regarding military capabilities may persist after fighting ends and that this uncertainty may lead to the breakdown of peace. However, carefully designed peace agreements can guard against renewed civil war by calling for international monitoring, making the belligerents submit military information to third parties, and providing for verification of this information. Our empirical analysis of 51 civil war settlements between 1945 and 2005 shows that these provisions significantly reduce the risk of new civil war. Encouraging the adoption of these provisions may be a useful policy in the international community's effort to establish peace in civil‐war‐torn societies.

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  • Michaela Mattes & Burcu Savun, 2010. "Information, Agreement Design, and the Durability of Civil War Settlements," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 511-524, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:54:y:2010:i:2:p:511-524
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00444.x
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    4. Alyssa K Prorok & Deniz Cil, 2022. "Cheap talk or costly commitment? Leader statements and the implementation of civil war peace agreements," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 409-424, May.
    5. Lisa Hultman & Jacob D. Kathman & Megan Shannon, 2016. "United Nations peacekeeping dynamics and the duration of post-civil conflict peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 231-249, July.
    6. Govinda Clayton & Han Dorussen, 2022. "The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 150-165, March.
    7. Anessa L. Kimball, 2019. "Knocking NATO: Strategic and institutional challenges risk the future of Europe’s seven-decade long cold peace," SPP Briefing Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 12(36), October.
    8. Constantin Ruhe, 2021. "Impeding fatal violence through third-party diplomacy: The effect of mediation on conflict intensity," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(4), pages 687-701, July.

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