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Which type of international organizations can settle civil wars?

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  • Magnus Lundgren

    (Stockholm University)

Abstract

International organizations (IOs) take on an increasing share of civil war mediation around the world. The determinants of IO mediation effectiveness remain poorly understood, partly because prior research has not adequately captured the institutional heterogeneity of peace-brokering IOs. To explore how mediation effectiveness depends on institutional variation, I combine newly gathered data on the design of 13 peace-brokering IOs with existing data on 109 civil war mediation episodes in the 1975-2004 period. I find that IOs with institutionalized capabilities to deploy field missions, such as peacekeeping operations, outperform other IOs as mediators of civil wars, whereas information-gathering capacity does not yield a significant advantage. The results suggest that IO enforcement assistance has a forward-looking effect: the ability to credibly signal, ex ante, that peacekeeping or monitoring forces will be deployed to enforce an agreement, helps IOs shape negotiations long before forces are actually deployed. Reaffirming the credible commitment theory of conflict resolution, the study demonstrates that there is considerable variation among external guarantors, which explains why some IOs can shift civil war disputants away from violent bargaining strategies whereas other cannot.

Suggested Citation

  • Magnus Lundgren, 2017. "Which type of international organizations can settle civil wars?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 613-641, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:revint:v:12:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11558-016-9253-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11558-016-9253-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Zorzeta Bakaki, 2020. "The Joint Effect of International and Domestic-Level State Capacity on Civil War Risk," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-14, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International organizations; Institutional design; Mediation; Civil war; Conflict resolution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making

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