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Small Area Prediction Under Alternative Model Specifications

Author

Listed:
  • Erciulescu Andreea L.

    (National Institute of Statistical Sciences and USDA NASS, 1400 Independence Ave. SW, Room 6040 F, Washington, DC, 20250 United States)

  • Fuller Wayne A.

    (Iowa State University, 214 Department of Statistics, Ames, IA, United States)

Abstract

Construction of small area predictors and estimation of the prediction mean squared error, given different types of auxiliary information are illustrated for a unit level model. Of interest are situations where the mean and variance of an auxiliary variable are subject to estimation error. Fixed and random specifications for the auxiliary variables are considered. The efficiency gains associated with the random specification for the auxiliary variable measured with error are demonstrated. A parametric bootstrap procedure is proposed for the mean squared error of the predictor based on a logit model. The proposed bootstrap procedure has smaller bootstrap error than a classical double bootstrap procedure with the same number of samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Erciulescu Andreea L. & Fuller Wayne A., 2016. "Small Area Prediction Under Alternative Model Specifications," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:stintr:v:17:y:2016:i:1:p:9-24:n:2
    DOI: 10.21307/stattrans-2016-003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gauri Sankar Datta & J. N. K. Rao & David Daniel Smith, 2005. "On measuring the variability of small area estimators under a basic area level model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(1), pages 183-196, March.
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    6. Peter Hall & Tapabrata Maiti, 2006. "On parametric bootstrap methods for small area prediction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(2), pages 221-238, April.
    7. Wang, Junyuan & Fuller, Wayne A., 2003. "The Mean Squared Error of Small Area Predictors Constructed With Estimated Area Variances," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 716-723, January.
    8. Mahmoud Torabi & Gauri S. Datta & J. N. K. Rao, 2009. "Empirical Bayes Estimation of Small Area Means under a Nested Error Linear Regression Model with Measurement Errors in the Covariates," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(2), pages 355-369, June.
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