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Modeling Nonresponse in Establishment Surveys: Using an Ensemble Tree Model to Create Nonresponse Propensity Scores and Detect Potential Bias in an Agricultural Survey

Author

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  • Earp Morgan

    (Bureau of Labor Statistics – Office of Survey Methods Research, PSB Suite 1950, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington District of Columbia 20212, U.S.A.)

  • Mitchell Melissa
  • McCarthy Jaki

    (USDA – National Agricultural Statistics Service, Fairfax, Virginia, U.S.A.)

  • Kreuter Frauke

    (University of Maryland – JPSM, 1218 Lefrak Hall, College Park, MD 20742, Maryland 20742, U.S.A.)

Abstract

Increasing nonresponse rates in federal surveys and potentially biased survey estimates are a growing concern, especially with regard to establishment surveys. Unlike household surveys, not all establishments contribute equally to survey estimates. With regard to agricultural surveys, if an extremely large farm fails to complete a survey, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) could potentially underestimate average acres operated among other things. In order to identify likely nonrespondents prior to data collection, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) began modeling nonresponse using Census of Agriculture data and prior Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) response history. Using an ensemble of classification trees, NASS has estimated nonresponse propensities for ARMS that can be used to predict nonresponse and are correlated with key ARMS estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Earp Morgan & Mitchell Melissa & McCarthy Jaki & Kreuter Frauke, 2014. "Modeling Nonresponse in Establishment Surveys: Using an Ensemble Tree Model to Create Nonresponse Propensity Scores and Detect Potential Bias in an Agricultural Survey," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:30:y:2014:i:4:p:19:n:7
    DOI: 10.2478/jos-2014-0044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katharine G. Abraham & Aaron Maitland & Suzanne M. Bianchi, 2006. "Non-response in the American Time Use Survey: Who Is Missing from the Data and How Much Does It Matter?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. William Axinn & Cynthia Link & Robert Groves, 2011. "Responsive Survey Design, Demographic Data Collection, and Models of Demographic Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 1127-1149, August.
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