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Forecasting Currency Risk in an Enterprise Using the Monte Carlo Simulation

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  • Kaczmarzyk Jan

    (University of Economics in Katowice, Katowice, Poland)

Abstract

A non-financial enterprise with receivables or liabilities denominated in a foreign currency is exposed to currency risk. Wanting to calculate a financial reserve in order to secure its receivables or liabilities, an enterprise can introduce the concept of the value at risk. To determine value at risk, an enterprise has to know the probability distribution of the future value of the receivable or the liability for a specific moment in future. Using a geometric Brownian motion to reflect exchange rate changes is among the possible solutions. The aim of the paper is to indicate that using the Monte Carlo simulation for forecasting the currency risk of an enterprise is a clear, easy-to-implement and flexible in terms of the assumptions approach. The flexibility of the Monte Carlo approach relies on the possibility to take up the assumption that the currency position changes caused by currency fluctuations have an other than normal probability distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaczmarzyk Jan, 2018. "Forecasting Currency Risk in an Enterprise Using the Monte Carlo Simulation," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 23(4), pages 50-62, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:finsci:v:23:y:2018:i:4:p:50-62:n:4
    DOI: 10.15611/fins.2018.4.04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luca Bagnato & Valerio Potì & Maria Zoia, 2015. "The role of orthogonal polynomials in adjusting hyperpolic secant and logistic distributions to analyse financial asset returns," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1205-1234, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate finance; financial risk; risk analysis; Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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