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The “New Normal” in Mortgage Lending and Its Impact on Default Probabilities

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  • Rauterkus Andreas

    (California State University San Marcos, College of Business Administration, Department of Finance, San Marcos, CA, USA)

Abstract

The paper analyses the evolution of the use of subprime loans and the availability of credit to different classes of borrowers. It examines the time period from 1980 to 2008 as a whole, as well as the changes in credit profiles in five sub-periods. By tracking borrower characteristics and their impact on foreclosure probability over time it determines what went wrong and how policy can be developed that prevents a repeat of the housing crisis that began at the end of 2006. The findings suggest that over the sample period debt to income, FICO score and loan-to-value are significant determinants for the probability of foreclosure and their importance increases over time. Furthermore, some borrowers are three times more likely to default on a loan originated between 2001 and 2006 than a loan originated between 1980 and 1994 indicating a distinct difference in lending terms and the general lending environment over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Rauterkus Andreas, 2021. "The “New Normal” in Mortgage Lending and Its Impact on Default Probabilities," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 130-147, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:bjrecm:v:9:y:2021:i:1:p:130-147:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/bjreecm-2021-0011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence, 2008. "Subprime mortgages: what, where, and to whom?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreclosure probability; residential real estate crisis; subprime mortgages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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