IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v86y1978i1p19-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Value of Bond Call Protection

Author

Listed:
  • Bodie, Zvi
  • Friedman, Benjamin M

Abstract

This paper uses a model of the valuation of bonds bearing call options, together with observed market yields on callable bonds, to infer information about the uncertainty associated with interest rate expectations. A dynamic programming solution of the model simultaneously determines both the bond price and the issuer's optimal refunding strategy, given the relevant data describing the bond and the market's expectations of future interest rates. Application of the valuation model in reverse, for quarterly average data for 1969-76, generates a time series representing the uncertainty which the market associated with its expectations of future interest rates during this interval, given the then-prevailing yields on new issues of utility bonds and industrial bonds callable after 5 years and 10 years, respectively. This uncertainty, parameterized as the standard deviation of a truncated normal distribution, fluctuated between 1/2 percent and 3/4 percent between 1969 and early 1974, then rose to sharply higher levels from mid-1974 through mid-1975, and has fluctuated between 3/4 percent and 1 percent since late 1975.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Bodie, Zvi & Friedman, Benjamin M, 1978. "Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Value of Bond Call Protection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 19-43, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:86:y:1978:i:1:p:19-43
    DOI: 10.1086/260645
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/260645
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. See http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/260645?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. A. Lutz, 1940. "The Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 55(1), pages 36-63.
    2. Ofer, Aharon R & Taggart, Robert A, Jr, 1977. "Bond Refunding: A Clarifying Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 21-30, March.
    3. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1972. "The Economic Value of the Call Option," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 891-901, September.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Zvi Bodie & Benjamin M. Friedman, 1977. "Heterogeneous-Expectations Model of the Value of Bonds Bearing Call Options," NBER Working Papers 0218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
    7. Frank C. Jen & James E. Wert, 1967. "The Effect Of Call Risk On Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 637-651, December.
    8. Kraus, Alan, 1973. "The Bond Refunding Decision in an Efficient Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(5), pages 793-806, December.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. Fair, Ray C & Malkiel, Burton G, 1971. "The Determination of Yield Differentials between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 733-749, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "The Roles of Money and Credit in Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "Financing Capital Formation in the 1980s: Issues for Public Policy," NBER Working Papers 0745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Zvi Bodie & Benjamin M. Friedman, 1977. "Heterogeneous-Expectations Model of the Value of Bonds Bearing Call Options," NBER Working Papers 0218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephen A. Buser & Patric H. Hendershott, 1984. "The Pricing of Default-Free Mortgages," NBER Working Papers 1408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Clifford F. Thies, 1985. "New Estimates Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: 1920–1939," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(4), pages 297-306, December.
    7. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1982. "Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U.S. Capital Raising Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 0917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zvi Bodie & Benjamin M. Friedman, 1977. "Heterogeneous-Expectations Model of the Value of Bonds Bearing Call Options," NBER Working Papers 0218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. William E. Mitchell, 1979. "Debt Refunding: The State and Local Government Sector," Public Finance Review, , vol. 7(3), pages 323-337, July.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    5. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    6. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    7. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2002. "Modeling credit spreads: An application to the sterling Eurobond market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 183-218.
    8. John C. Banko & Lei Zhou, 2010. "Callable Bonds Revisited," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 613-641, June.
    9. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.
    10. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    11. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    12. Sandrine Lardic & Claire Gauthier, 2003. "Un modèle multifactoriel des spreads de crédit : estimation sur panels complets et incomplets," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 53-69.
    13. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    14. Klomp, Jeroen, 2013. "Government interventions and default risk: Does one size fit all?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 641-653.
    15. Jobst, Andreas A., 2014. "Measuring systemic risk-adjusted liquidity (SRL)—A model approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 270-287.
    16. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    17. Nusrat Jahan, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Credit Spreads: Evidence from Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 22-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    18. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    19. Galai, Dan & Raviv, Alon & Wiener, Zvi, 2007. "Liquidation triggers and the valuation of equity and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3604-3620, December.
    20. Schmidt, Frederik, 2009. "The Undervaluation of Distressed Company's Equity," MPRA Paper 13341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Michael C. Munnix & Rudi Schafer & Thomas Guhr, 2011. "A Random Matrix Approach to Credit Risk," Papers 1102.3900, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2011.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:86:y:1978:i:1:p:19-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.