IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/asiaec/v19y2020i3p62-84.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Default Probability by Employment Status in South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Hosung Jung

    (Economic Research Institute Bank of Korea 39 Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu Seoul, Korea 04531)

  • Hyun Hak Kim

    (Department of Economics Kookmin University 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu Seoul, Korea, 02707)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the factors behind the loan defaults of borrowers by their employment status (whether they are self-employed) using the Korea Consumer Credit Panel data held by the Bank of Korea, and estimates the probability of default and the fragility of the financial sector. This is done using the concept of exposure at default for individuals. Using individual data on loans and delinquencies, we divide the spreads of personal loans into spreads determined by loan characteristics and spreads based on credit ratings to examine how these factors determine the probability of default among self-employed and non-self-employed borrowers. We find that the marginal effect of the spread based by the characteristic of loans and the borrowers’ credit ratings on the probability of default is greater to the self-employed borrowers, as compared to the non-self-employed borrowers. Especially, the effect of the spread by credit rating is stronger than the other. When we measure the vulnerability of financial institutions in terms of households’ probability of default, the institutions’ exposure to default of the self-employed affects to institutions’ vulnerability more than those of the non-self-employed. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the connectedness of financial institutions to household debt, and, in particular, the financial status of the self-employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hosung Jung & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Default Probability by Employment Status in South Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 19(3), pages 62-84, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:19:y:2020:i:3:p:62-84
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/asep_a_00786
    Download Restriction: Access to PDF is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    2. Marcelo Fuenzalida & Jaime Ruiz-Tagle, 2011. "Household Financial Vulnerability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 10, pages 299-326, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Shubhasis Dey & Ramdane Djoudad & Yaz Terajima, 2008. "A Tool for Assessing Financial Vulnerabilities in the Household Sector," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Summer), pages 47-56.
    4. Ms. Meral Karasulu, 2008. "Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea," IMF Working Papers 2008/255, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nicolas Albacete & Pirmin Fessler, 2010. "Stress Testing Austrian Households," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 19, pages 72-91.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Spain: Vulnerabilities of Private Sector Balance Sheets and Risks to the Financial Sector Technical Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/140, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    8. Valentina Michelangeli & Mario Pietrunti, 2014. "A Microsimulation Model to evaluate Italian Households Financial Vulnerability," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(3), pages 53-79.
    9. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats économiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
    10. In Huh & Jiyoun An, 2014. "An Empirical Evaluation of Macro-Prudential Measures in Korea: Focusing on Debt Inflows," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 13(2), pages 68-85, Summer.
    11. Yong Sun Kim & Kwang Kyu Lim, 2013. "A Study on Mortgage Loan Borrowing Behavior of Korean Households: A Micro Perspective," Working Papers 2013-9, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    12. Nicolas Albacete & Peter Lindner, 2013. "Household Vulnerability in Austria – A Microeconomic Analysis Based on the Household Finance and Consumption Survey," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 57-73.
    13. Mindaugas Leika & Daniela Marchettini, 2017. "A Generalized Framework for the Assessment of Household Financial Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 2017/228, International Monetary Fund.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jong-Wha Lee & Cyn-Young Park, 2009. "Global Financial Turmoil: Impact and Challenges for Asia's Financial Systems-super-," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pages 9-40, Winter.
    16. Piotr Banbula & Arkadiusz Kotula & Joanna Gabriela Przeworska & Pawel Strzelecki, 2016. "Which households are really financially distressed: how micro data could inform the macroprudential policy," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Deok Ryong Yoon, 2011. "The Korean Economic Adjustment to the World Financial Crisis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(1), pages 106-127, Winter/Sp.
    18. Luísa Farinha & Sónia Costa, 2012. "Households’ indebtedness: a microeconomic analysis based on the results of the households’ financial," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Tom Bilston & Robert Johnson & Matthew Read, 2015. "Stress Testing the Australian Household Sector Using the HILDA Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hyun Hak Kim, 2022. "A dynamic analysis of household debt using a self-organizing map," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2893-2919, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giordana, Gastón & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2020. "Stress testing household balance sheets in Luxembourg," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-138.
    2. Liaqat Ali & Muhammad Kamran Naqi Khan & Habib Ahmad, 2020. "Financial Fragility of Pakistani Household," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 572-590, September.
    3. Aleksandra Riedl, 2021. "Are CESEE borrowers at risk? COVID-19 implications in a stress test analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/21, pages 37-53.
    4. Jaanika Meriküll & Tairi Rõõm, 2020. "Stress Tests of the Household Sector Using Microdata from Survey and Administrative Sources," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 203-248, March.
    5. Gaston Giordana & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2024. "Using household-level data to guide borrower-based macro-prudential policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 785-827, February.
    6. Liaqat Ali & Muhammad Kamran Naqi Khan & Habib Ahmad, 2020. "Education of the Head and Financial Vulnerability of Households: Evidence from a Household’s Survey Data in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 439-463, January.
    7. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Ariun-Erdene Bayarjargal, 2017. "Stress testing the household sector in Mongolia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 24(2), pages 23-52, December.
    8. Gross, Marco & Población, Javier, 2017. "Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 510-528.
    9. Kirsten Abela & Ilias Georgakopoulus, 2022. "A stress testing framework for the Maltese household sector," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Kim, Young Il & Kim, Hyoung Chan & Yoo, Joo Hee, 2016. "Household Over-indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability in Korea: Evidence from Credit Bureau Data," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 38(3), pages 53-77.
    11. Gross, Marco & Población García, Francisco Javier, 2016. "Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households," Working Paper Series 1881, European Central Bank.
    12. Nataliya Barasinska & Philipp Haenle & Anne Koban & Alexander Schmidt, 2023. "No Reason to Worry About German Mortgages? An Analysis of Macroeconomic and Individual Drivers of Credit Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 369-399, December.
    13. Alessandra Bettocchi & Elena Giarda & Cristiana Moriconi & Federica Orsini & Rita Romeo, 2018. "Assessing and predicting financial vulnerability of Italian households: a micro-macro approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 587-605, August.
    14. Simona Malovaná & Michal Hlavácek & Kamil Galušcák, 2017. "Stress testing the Czech household sector using microdata - practical applications in the policy-making process," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Nicolas Albacete & Pirmin Fessler & Maximilian Propst, 2020. "Mapping financial vulnerability in CESEE: understanding risk-bearing capacities of households is key in times of crisis," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 39, pages 71-87.
    16. Piotr Banbula & Arkadiusz Kotula & Joanna Gabriela Przeworska & Pawel Strzelecki, 2016. "Which households are really financially distressed: how micro data could inform the macroprudential policy," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Simona Malovaná & Michal Hlaváček & Kamil Galuščák, 2018. "Citlivost českých domácností na úrokový a příjmový šok. Aplikace na mikroúdajích [Sensitivity of Czech Households to Interest Rate and Income Shock. Applications on Microdata]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(5), pages 531-549.
    18. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.
    19. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    20. Muhamad Shukri Abdul Rani & Siti Hanifah Borhan Nordin & Chin Ching Lau & Sheng Ling Lim & Zhen Shing Siow, 2017. "Rich debt, poor debt: assessing household indebtedness and debt repayment capacity," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 153-168, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:19:y:2020:i:3:p:62-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.