IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/transp/v38y2015i6p684-707.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

Author

Listed:
  • Leonid Engelson
  • Dirk van Amelsfort

Abstract

This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Engelson & Dirk van Amelsfort, 2015. "The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 684-707, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:38:y:2015:i:6:p:684-707
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2015.1048948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03081060.2015.1048948
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/03081060.2015.1048948?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mogens Fosgerau & Kurt Van Dender, 2013. "Road pricing with complications," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 479-503, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. West, Jens & Börjesson, Maria & Engelson, Leonid, 2016. "Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 266-277.
    2. West , Jens & Börjesson , Maria & Engelson , Leonid, 2016. "Forecasting effects of congestion charges," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:9, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    3. Börjesson, Maria & Asplund, Disa & Hamilton, Carl, 2023. "Optimal kilometre tax for electric vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 52-64.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Proost, Stef & Van Dender, Kurt, 2012. "Energy and environment challenges in the transport sector," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 77-87.
    2. Kristoffersson, Ida, 2013. "Impacts of time-varying cordon pricing: Validation and application of mesoscopic model for Stockholm," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 51-60.
    3. Kristoffersson, Ida & Engelson, Leonid, 2016. "Efficiency and equity of congestion charges," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:7, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    4. Ida Kristoffersson & Leonid Engelson, 2011. "Modifications of the Stockholm congestion pricing scheme and effects on different user groups," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1455, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Mogens Fosgerau & Kurt Van Dender, 2013. "Road pricing with complications," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 479-503, May.
    6. Juan de Dios Ortúzar & Elisabetta Cherchi & Luis Ignacio Rizzi, 2014. "Transport research needs," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 29, pages 688-698, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Jean-Philippe Meloche, 2019. "Towards a New Era in Road Pricing? Lessons from the Experience of First Movers," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-35, CIRANO.
    8. Heyndrickx, Christophe & Vanheukelom, Toon & Proost, Stef, 2021. "Distributional impact of a regional road pricing scheme in Flanders," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 116-139.
    9. Li, Zhi-Chun & Huang, Hai-Jun & Yang, Hai, 2020. "Fifty years of the bottleneck model: A bibliometric review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 311-342.
    10. Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of Choice Modelling," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14820.
    11. Jonas Westin, 2011. "Labor Market Effects of Road Pricing in a Population with Continuously Distributed Value of Time," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1458, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:38:y:2015:i:6:p:684-707. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GTPT20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.