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Thirlwall's Law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities

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  • Erkin Bairam
  • Lawrence Ng
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    Abstract

    The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of income elasticities used in Thirlwall's law to approximate a country's long-term growth and to see empirically how non-constancy will affect these predictions. For this purpose, three countries - Canada, New Zealand and the UK - are analysed, using annual time series data from 1973 to 1995. These three countries were chosen on the basis of their contrasting trade patterns. The results obtained are different for each country but they still suggest the predictive power of one of the two specifications of Thirlwall's law is good.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 287-303

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:15:y:2001:i:3:p:287-303

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    1. Landesmann, Michael & Snell, Andrew, 1989. "The Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher for U.K. Manufacturing Exports," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
    3. A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "Reflections on the Concept of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 377-385, April.
    4. John S. L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, April.
    5. Erkin I. Bairam, 1997. "Levels of Economic Development and Appropriate Specification of the Harrod Foreign-Trade Multiplier," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 337-344, April.
    6. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Hurn, A Stan, 1992. " Cointegration and Dynamic Time Series Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43.
    7. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
    8. Perron, P., 1987. "The Great Crash, the Oil Prices and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cahiers de recherche 8749, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    9. Stern, Robert M & Baum, Christopher F & Greene, Mark N, 1979. "Evidence on Structural Change in the Demand for Aggregate U.S. Imports and Exports," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 179-92, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth: the Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 41791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Thilak Ranaweera, 2004. "Ghost of the financing gap: an overlooked aspect of the aid debate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 637-652.

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