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An analysis of trading strategies in eleven European stock markets

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  • Suzanne Fifield
  • David Power
  • C. Donald Sinclair
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    Abstract

    In recent years, the validity of the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been called into question as several studies have uncovered evidence that technical trading rules have predictive ability with respect to both developed and emerging stock market indices. This study analyses the forecasting power of 2 of the most popular trading rules using index data for a selection of 11 European stock markets over the January 1991 to December 2000 period. The findings indicate that the emerging markets included in this paper are informationally inefficient; these markets displayed some degree of predictability in their share returns, although the developed markets did not. Furthermore, the results point to large differences in the performance of the rules examined; while small size filters consistently outperformed the buy-and-hold strategy in the emerging markets examined even after the consideration of transaction costs, the performance of the moving average rules was erratic and varied dramatically from market to market.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1351847042000304099
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 531-548

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:11:y:2005:i:6:p:531-548

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    Related research

    Keywords: Trading rules; emerging markets; market efficiency;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
    2. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
    3. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. David McMillan & Pako Thupayagale, 2011. "Measuring volatility persistence and long memory in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from African stock markets," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 219-241, March.
    2. Scholz, Peter & Walther, Ursula, 2011. "The trend is not your friend! Why empirical timing success is determined by the underlying's price characteristics and market efficiency is irrelevant," CPQF Working Paper Series 29, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Centre for Practical Quantitative Finance (CPQF).
    3. Scholz, Peter, 2012. "Size matters! How position sizing determines risk and return of technical timing strategies," CPQF Working Paper Series 31, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Centre for Practical Quantitative Finance (CPQF).
    4. Collins G. Ntim & Kwaku K. Opong & Jo Danbolt & Frank Senyo Dewotor, 2011. "Testing the weak-form efficiency in African stock markets," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 195-218, March.

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