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Econometric Estimation Of Armington Import Elasticities For A Regional Cge Model Of The Illinois Economy

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  • Karen Turner
  • Soo Jung Ha
  • Geoffrey J.D. Hewings
  • Peter Mcgregor
  • Kim Swales

Abstract

One of the main concerns associated with the development and use of regional CGE models is the determination of key parameter values, particularly substitution and other price elasticities. A common problem is the lack of appropriate regional data for econometric estimation. Consequently, it is important to identify key parameters that are likely to be important in determining quantitative results and then to prioritize these for estimation where appropriate data are available. In this paper, the focus is on the estimation of the regional trade (import) substitution parameters, which tend to be important in analysis for regional economies (given their openness to trade). Here, commodity import elasticities for the Illinois economy are estimated and tested in a single region CGE model of the Illinois economy. In our econometric estimation, we apply a model that takes account of market size and distance in estimating the substitutability between commodities produced in Illinois and other US states.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Turner & Soo Jung Ha & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings & Peter Mcgregor & Kim Swales, 2012. "Econometric Estimation Of Armington Import Elasticities For A Regional Cge Model Of The Illinois Economy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:24:y:2012:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2011.645800
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    Cited by:

    1. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2013. "Forward-looking and myopic regional Computable General Equilibrium models: How significant is the distinction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 160-176.
    2. Yizhou Zhang & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2019. "Fiscal Decentralization – A Cautious Tale," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 173-187, March.
    3. Erik Dietzenbacher & Manfred Lenzen & Bart Los & Dabo Guan & Michael L. Lahr & Ferran Sancho & Sangwon Suh & Cuihong Yang, 2013. "Input--Output Analysis: The Next 25 Years," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 369-389, December.
    4. Hannum, Christopher & Cutler, Harvey & Iverson, Terrence & Keyser, David, 2017. "Estimating the implied cost of carbon in future scenarios using a CGE model: The Case of Colorado," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 500-511.
    5. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias," Working Papers IES 2019/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2019.
    6. James A. Giesecke & John R. Madden, 2013. "Evidence-based regional economic policy analysis: the role of CGE modelling," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 6(2), pages 285-301.
    7. Jeffrey Condon & Andrew Feltenstein & Florenz Plassman & Mark Rider & David L. Sjoquist, 2014. "A Regional Model of Growth Oriented Fiscal Policy: An Application to Georgia and Its Competitor States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2), pages 177-209, Summer.
    8. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Goods: A Quantitative Survey," Working Papers 2019/12, Czech National Bank.
    10. Claudia Kettner & Oliver Fritz & Angela Köppl & Eduardo A. Haddad & Alexandre Porsse, 2012. "Volkswirtschaftliche Effekte von Maßnahmen zur Steigerung der Energieeffizienz und des Anteils erneuerbarer Energien in den österreichischen Klima- und Energiemodellregionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45538, February.

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