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Sequential Decision-making in Interdependent Sectors with Multiobjective Inoperability Decision Trees: Application to Biofuel Subsidy Analysis

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  • Joost Santos
  • Kash Barker
  • Paul Zelinke
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    Abstract

    Decision-making involving large-scale systems often involves considerations for temporal changes, interdependencies in organizational structures, multiple competing objectives, and risk and uncertainty, among others. In this paper we develop a risk-based methodology, the Multiobjective Inoperability Decision Tree (MOIDT). It integrates several dimensions of decision-making processes associated with interconnected systems in terms of: (i) evaluation of sequential policies; (ii) analysis of interdependencies; (iii) treatment of multiple objectives and their tradeoffs; and (iv) characterization of uncertainties. To demonstrate the integration of these four components, we present a case study to analyze the impact of government policies towards mass-scale biofuel production. Using a multi-period decision framework, the analysis utilizes economic input-output data to model the probabilistic demand adjustments for sectors that will likely be affected by biofuel policies.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09535310801890672
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 29-56

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:20:y:2008:i:1:p:29-56

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CESR20

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    Related research

    Keywords: Interdependency analysis; multiobjective decision-making; sequential decision-making; extreme event analysis;

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    Cited by:
    1. Barker, Kash & Santos, Joost R., 2010. "Measuring the efficacy of inventory with a dynamic input-output model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 130-143, July.
    2. Frini, Anissa & Guitouni, Adel & Martel, Jean-Marc, 2012. "A general decomposition approach for multi-criteria decision trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 452-460.
    3. Tan, Raymond R., 2011. "A general source-sink model with inoperability constraints for robust energy sector planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3759-3764.
    4. Suzuki, Kengo & Uchiyama, Yohji, 2010. "Quantifying the risk of an increase in the prices of non-energy products by combining the portfolio and input-output approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5867-5877, October.

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