A dynamic input-output model with explicit new and old technologies: an application to the UK
AbstractProgress is traditionally measured by the improvement of an economy's average characteristics from year to year. Some deeper insight might be gained by splitting the averages into explicit parameters for the new and old technologies at work within the same year, and recognising that innovative growth is driven just by the 'potential difference' between these two types of technology. Economic modelling in this light generates volatile development paths greatly resembling actual statistical time series, giving a holistic description of cycles, structural change, structural unemployment, relative price shifts and capacity utilisation issues. The paper expands the author's elaborations of the explicit-new-technology approach from prototype economies to that of the UK. Forecasts very close to reality are achieved including the 1992 cyclical decline. All this gives empirical support to the premise that the input-output method, if modified, could become a competitive tool for analysing 'spontaneous' market forces, as well as for direct planning. The need for separate statistical accounting of parameters for new technologies at macro- and industry-levels is substantiated.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.
Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=104572
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heinz Kurz & Neri Salvadori, 2000. "The Dynamic Leontief Model and the Theory of Endogenous Growth," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 255-265.
- Heinz Kurz & Neri Salvadori, 2000. "'Classical' Roots of Input-Output Analysis: A Short Account of its Long Prehistory," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 153-179.
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