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Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model

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  • Goodness C. Aye
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Chi Keung Marco Lau
  • Xin Sheng

Abstract

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.

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  • Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2019. "Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(33), pages 3624-3631, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:33:p:3624-3631
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1584373
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    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
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    6. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Investigating existence of chaos in short and long term dynamics of Moroccan exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 655-661.
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    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Das, Sonali, 2022. "Forecasting output growth of advanced economies over eight centuries: The role of gold market volatility as a proxy of global uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Matthew W. Clance & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2019. "The Relationship between Economic Uncertainty and Corporate Tax Rates," Working Papers 201945, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & George Ike & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 1008-1026, March.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Sun, Xiaojin, 2020. "Forecasting economic policy uncertainty of BRIC countries using Bayesian VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    7. Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Salisu, Afees A., 2022. "Oil-price uncertainty and the U.K. unemployment rate: A forecasting experiment with random forests using 150 years of data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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