IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v48y2016i5p379-388.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mean reverting financial leverage: theory and evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Tanveer Ahsan
  • Wang Man
  • Muhammad Azeem Qureshi

Abstract

Grounding concepts of the two competing theories of capital structure (trade-off theory, pecking order theory) are quite opposite to each other. Trade-off theory claims that there is an optimal (target) capital structure and firms try to achieve that optimal (target) point. Whereas pecking order theory argues that there is no optimal (target) capital structure but the firms follow a specific pattern of financing. Using the two competing theoretic frameworks, this study applies Fisher-type panel unit root test to an unbalanced panel data of 13 115 firm-year observations of nonfinancial firms listed on Karachi Stock Exchange Pakistan spread over 38 years (1973-2010). Overall panel test results, for short-term, long-term, as well as total leverage support trade-off financing behaviour while individual firm results do not. Individual firm results show that only 16% of the firms have short-term target, 25% of the firms have long-term target and 12% of the firms have total target leverage ratio. Further, industry results explain that most of the industries do have target leverage ratios and classification of data into profitable and lossmaking firm-year observations explains that profitable firms clearly follow trade-off financing behaviour while the results for lossmaking firms do not support trade-off financing behaviour. Our study indicates that it is important for the government to ensure policies to develop well-balanced financial markets and to improve accountability systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanveer Ahsan & Wang Man & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2016. "Mean reverting financial leverage: theory and evidence from Pakistan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 379-388, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:5:p:379-388
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1080802
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2015.1080802
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2015.1080802?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stulz, ReneM., 1990. "Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-27, July.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 1977. "The Determination of Financial Structure: The Incentive-Signalling Approach," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 23-40, Spring.
    3. Brounen, Dirk & de Jong, Abe & Koedijk, Kees, 2006. "Capital structure policies in Europe: Survey evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1409-1442, May.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    6. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    7. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2005. "Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1371-1411.
    8. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Huang, Rongbing & Ritter, Jay R., 2009. "Testing Theories of Capital Structure and Estimating the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 237-271, April.
    10. Eugene F. Fama, 2002. "Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    12. Flannery, Mark J. & Rangan, Kasturi P., 2006. "Partial adjustment toward target capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 469-506, March.
    13. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    14. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    15. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    16. Nadeem Ahmed Sheikh & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2014. "Crowding-out or shying-away: impact of corporate income tax on capital structure choice of firms in Pakistan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1249-1260, October.
    17. Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2009. "Does pecking order theory explain leverage behaviour in Pakistan?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(17), pages 1365-1370.
    18. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tanveer Ahsan & Man Wang & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2016. "Mean Reverting Financial Leverage and Firm Life Cycle: Theory versus Evidence (Pakistan)," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 19-26, May.
    2. Razali Haron, 2018. "Firm Level, Ownership Concentration and Industry Level Determinants of Capital Structure in an Emerging Market: Indonesia Evidence," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(1), pages 127-151.
    3. Rana El Bahsh & Ali Alattar & Aziz N. Yusuf, 2018. "Firm, Industry and Country Level Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 175-190.
    4. Thao Nguyen & Min Bai & Greg Hou & Cameron Truong, 2021. "Speed of adjustment towards target leverage: evidence from a quantile regression analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5073-5109, December.
    5. Feng-Li Lin, 2020. "Do DJIA Firms Reflect Stationary Debt Ratios?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Ajid ur Rehman & Man Wang & Haoyang Yu, 2016. "Dynamics of financial leverage across firm life cycle in Chinese firms: an empirical investigation using dynamic panel data model," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Umeair Shahzad & Fukai Luo & Jing Liu & Mahmood Faisal & Hafeez Ullah, 2022. "The most consistent and reliable predictors of corporate financial choices in Pakistan: New evidence using BIC estimation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 237-257, January.
    8. Tanveer Ahsan & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2017. "The impact of financial liberalization on capital structure adjustment in Pakistan: a doubly censored modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(41), pages 4148-4160, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    2. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Bottazzi, Laura & Golinelli, Roberto, 2020. "A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2010. "Nonlinear modelling of target leverage with latent determinant variables — new evidence on the trade‐off theory," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 137-150, October.
    4. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Girma, Sourafel & Shah, M. Eskandar & Williams, Jonathan, 2014. "Dynamic capital structure and political patronage: The case of Malaysia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 117-128.
    5. Sabiwalsky, Ralf, 2010. "Nonlinear modelling of target leverage with latent determinant variables -- new evidence on the trade-off theory," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 137-150, October.
    6. Iván Arribas & Emili Tortosa-Ausina & TingTing Zhu, 2021. "Optimal capital structure, model uncertainty, and European SMEs," Working Papers 2021/11, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    7. Khémiri, Wafa & Noubbigh, Hédi, 2020. "Size-threshold effect in debt-firm performance nexus in the sub-Saharan region: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 335-344.
    8. Mohamed, Hisham Hanifa & Masih, Mansur & Bacha, Obiyathulla I., 2015. "Why do issuers issue Sukuk or conventional bond? Evidence from Malaysian listed firms using partial adjustment models," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 233-252.
    9. Yu, Chih-Ping, 2015. "Financial policies on firm performance: The U.S. insurance industry before and after the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 391-402.
    10. M. E. Bontempi & L. Bottazzi & R. Golinelli, 2015. "Dynamic corporate capital structure behavior: empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity," Working Papers wp988, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    11. McMillan, David G. & Camara, Omar, 2012. "Dynamic capital structure adjustment: US MNCs & DCs," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 278-301.
    12. Morais, Flávio & Serrasqueiro, Zélia & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2020. "The zero-leverage phenomenon: A bivariate probit with partial observability approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. Yousry Ahmed & Tamer Elshandidy, 2021. "Effect of leverage deviation on choices and outcomes of public versus non‐public acquisitions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3436-3459, July.
    14. Faiza Asad & Saqib Gulzar & Kenbata Bangassa & Majid Jamal Khan, 2020. "Capital structure adjustment and market reaction following seasoned equity offerings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 388-411, July.
    15. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2019. "Determinants of Optimal Capital Structure and Speed of Adjustment: Evidence from the U.S. ICT Sector," Working papers 2019-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    16. Stavros H. Arvanitis & Irakleia S. Tzigkounaki & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos & Eleftherios I. Thalassinos, 2012. "Dynamic Approach of Capital Structure of European Shipping Companies," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(3), pages 33-63, December.
    17. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, Mansur & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath, 2018. "Determinants of capital structure: evidence from Shari'ah compliant and non-compliant firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 198-219.
    18. Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Öztekin, Özde, 2011. "Firm- and country-level determinants of corporate leverage: Some new international evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1457-1474.
    19. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2022. "Firm size, corporate debt, R&D activity, and agency costs: Exploring dynamic and non-linear effects," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    20. Im, Hyun Joong & Kang, Ya & Shon, Janghoon, 2020. "How does uncertainty influence target capital structure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:5:p:379-388. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.