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Do economies stall?

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  • Wai-Yip Alex Ho
  • James Yetman

Abstract

A 'stalling' economy has been defined as one that experiences a discrete deterioration in economic performance following a decline in its growth rate to below some threshold level. We examine the international evidence for stalling in a panel of 51 economies using two different definitions of a stall threshold (time-invariant and related to lagged average growth rates). We find that the evidence for stalling is limited: only 7-12 of the economies in our sample experience statistically significant stalls at the 5% level based on any one definition.

Suggested Citation

  • Wai-Yip Alex Ho & James Yetman, 2014. "Do economies stall?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(35), pages 4267-4275, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:35:p:4267-4275
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.955255
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    3. Wai-Yip Alex Ho & James Yetman, 2012. "Does US GDP stall?," BIS Working Papers 387, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    5. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
    6. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 2-18, September.
    7. repec:cii:cepiei:2013-q2-134-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wai-Yip Alex Ho & James Yetman, 2013. "Do economies stall? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 407, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daping Zhao & Sajid Anwar & W. Robert J. Alexander, 2022. "Sources of economic slowdown: A simultaneous equations approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2549-2565, April.
    2. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.

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