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Services sector and economic growth in India

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  • Tarlok Singh

Abstract

This study examines the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic relationship between services sector and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and between services and nonservices sectors in India. The model is estimated using the optimal single-equation and the maximum-likelihood system estimators. All the estimators consistently suggest the cointegrating relationship between services sector and GDP as well as between services and nonservices sectors. The estimates of long-run elasticity parameters are statistically significant and dimensionally consistent across the estimators. The conventional Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and the new CUSUM and Moving Sum (MOSUM) tests suggest the stability of the equilibrium residuals and reinforce the cointegrating relationship between the model series. The error correction model provides some support for unidirectional Granger-causality from services sector to GDP. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses instead suggest the bidirectional causality between services sector and GDP and between services and nonservices sectors. The stable growth of services sector is essentially crucial to absorb the adverse effects of exogenous weather shocks in agriculture and industry and provide resilience to the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Services sector and economic growth in India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(30), pages 3925-3941.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:30:p:3925-3941
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802360229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
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    1. Md.Yousuf & Raju Ahmed & Nasrin Akther Lubna & Shah Md. Sumon, 2019. "Estimating the Services Sector Impact on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 62-72, June.
    2. Magoti, Edwin & Mtui, John M., 2020. "The Relationship between Economic Growth and Service Sector in Tanzania: An Empirical Investigation," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    3. Tarlok Singh, 2016. "On the sectoral linkages and pattern of economic growth in India," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 257-275, April.
    4. Ndubuisi, Gideon & Otioma, Chuks & Tetteh, Godsway Korku, 2021. "Digital infrastructure and employment in services: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(8).
    5. Michael D. Clemes & Baiding Hu & Xuedong Li, 2016. "Services and economic growth in China: an empirical analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 612-627, October.
    6. Kehinde Oluwole OLA & Felix Iredia IFADA, 2023. "Four Major Service Industries and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(7), pages 213-228, July.
    7. Vusal Murselzade & Behiye Cavusoglu, 2021. "Relationship between the Service Sector and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Asian Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 15-22.
    8. Abdul Jalil & Samia Manan & Sundus Saleemi, 2016. "Estimating the growth effects of services sector: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.

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