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The transmission mechanism of business cycles among Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA

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  • Shigeyuki Hamori

Abstract

The study analyses the interdependent relationships of business cycles among four major countries using LA-VAR methods. The results are compared with results obtained using a standard VAR model. For the total sample (1962-1995), it is found that the economies of individual countries move independently and that inter-dependence is weak. However, causality from the USA to Japan, and from Japan to Germany can be observed. It is also found that the ripple effect differs in the first (1962-1973) and second (1973-1995) sample periods. A change in the international ripple effect on the business cycle may have occurred at the time of the first oil crisis. These results are almost robust to the empirical techniques employed in the analysis.

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  • Shigeyuki Hamori, 2000. "The transmission mechanism of business cycles among Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 405-410.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:4:p:405-410
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400322589
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    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:23:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Shigeyuki Hamori & Yu-Ching Hsieh & Wan-Jun Yao, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis about Population, Technological Progress, and Economic Growth in Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(23), pages 1-13.
    3. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Kunlin Hsieh & Yuching Hsieh & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2010. "The Interdependence of Taiwanese and Japanese Stock Prices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 879-892.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2879-2888.
    6. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Hao, Lin-Na & Tao, Ran, 2020. "The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Cao, Zheng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2017. "Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Civcir, İrfan & Ertac Varoglu, Dizem, 2019. "International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 647-665.
    9. Devanthran, Haritharan, 2009. "Interdependence of SAARC-7 countries: an empirical study of business cycles," MPRA Paper 32798, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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