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Capturing all the information in foreign currency option prices: solving for one versus two implied variables

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  • William Pedersen

Abstract

The information content of option prices has traditionally been expressed in an implied volatility parameter which is characterized as capturing the markets expectations about future volatility of the underlying asset. Researchers normally solve for an implied volatility alone. A more recent trend has been to solve for both an implied interest rate and standard deviation simultaneously. This study compares the proficiency of these two techniques in capturing the information in the market prices of foreign currency options. The results show that solving for two implied variables consistently yields less information than solving for an implied volatility alone. This raises the implication that by trying to reduce one source of bias by solving for two variables simultaneously, researchers may be introducing a more serious source of error resulting in a dilution of the available information.

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  • William Pedersen, 1998. "Capturing all the information in foreign currency option prices: solving for one versus two implied variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1679-1683.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:12:p:1679-1683
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498324742
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    1. K. Maris & K. Nikolopoulos & K. Giannelos & V. Assimakopoulos, 2007. "Options trading driven by volatility directional accuracy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 253-260.
    2. Thorsten Egelkraut & Philip Garcia & Bruce Sherrick, 2007. "Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 145-152.
    3. Christian Dunis & Jason Laws & Stephane Chauvin, 2003. "FX volatility forecasts and the informational content of market data for volatility," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 242-272.

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