IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v6y1999i11p735-739.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • John Ashworth
  • Barry Thomas

Abstract

Tourism employment has grown rapidly (a fact which has been of interest to policymakers concerned with job generation) but it has a marked seasonal character. Several attempts have been made by the industry to lessen seasonality in tourism demand (and hence in tourism employment) by fillng troughs. This paper uses recent advances in econometric work to investigate whether seasonality has lessened as a result of these policies, and if so, the nature of the changes in seasonality. A quarterly UK data series from 1982:1 to 1996:4 is examined. The distinction between stochastic and deterministic trend is made, and it is found that seasonality has in fact lessened and is best modelled as a break in deterministic seasonality. There has been approximately a 30% fall in the summer (second quarter) effect and approximately a 24% fall in the winter (fourth quarter) effect: thus the seasonal smoothing comes from lower hiring at the start of the peak season and lower firing at the end of the season.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ashworth & Barry Thomas, 1999. "Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 735-739.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:11:p:735-739
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/135048599352312&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/135048599352312?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott, A., 1995. "Why id Consumption so Seasonal?," Economics Series Working Papers 99172, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Zacharias Psaradakis, 1997. "Testing for unit roots in time series with nearly deterministic seasonal variation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 421-439.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernández-Morales, Antonio & Cisneros-Martínez, José David & McCabe, Scott, 2016. "Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-190.
    2. Sara Dalir & Abror Mahamadaminov & Hossein GT Olya, 2021. "Airbnb and taxation: Developing a seasonal tax system," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, March.
    3. Andrej Agacevic & Ming Xu, 2020. "Chinese Tourists as a Sustainable Boost to Low Seasons in Ex-Yugoslavia Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, January.
    4. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    5. Guimarães, Maria Helena & Sousa, Carlos & Dentinho, Tomaz & Boski, Tomasz, 2014. "Economic base model for the Guadiana estuary, Portugal an application for Integrated Coastal Zone Management," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 63-70.
    6. Evren Erdoğan Cosar, 2006. "Seasonal behaviour of the consumer price index of Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 449-455.
    7. Paz Rico & Bernardí Cabrer-Borrás & Francisco Morillas-Jurado, 2021. "Seasonality in Tourism: Do Senior Programs Mitigate It?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-27, August.
    8. Janta, Hania & Ladkin, Adele & Brown, Lorraine & Lugosi, Peter, 2011. "Employment experiences of Polish migrant workers in the UK hospitality sector," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1006-1019.
    9. Anna Dóra Sæþórsdóttir & C. Michael Hall & Þorkell Stefánsson, 2019. "Senses by Seasons: Tourists’ Perceptions Depending on Seasonality in Popular Nature Destinations in Iceland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Antonio Fern�ndez-Morales, 2017. "Tourism Mobility In Time And Seasonality In Tourism," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 71(2), pages 21-30, April-Jun.
    11. Martínez, José Manuel Guaita & Martín, José María Martín & Rey, María del Sol Ostos, 2020. "An analysis of the changes in the seasonal patterns of tourist behavior during a process of economic recovery," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    13. Jorge Ridderstaat & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Measuring Pattern, Amplitude and Timing Differences between Monetary and Non-Monetary Seasonal Factors of Tourism - the Case of Aruba," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-116/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 05 Sep 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
    2. Steven Cook, 2000. "Seasonal adjustment and cointegrating relationships: consumption and income," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 549-551.
    3. Rodrigues, Paulo M. M. & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Alternative estimators and unit root tests for seasonal autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 35-73, May.
    4. Alan Carruth & Andrew Dickerson, 2003. "An asymmetric error correction model of UK consumer spending," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 619-630.
    5. Smith, Richard J. & Robert Taylor, A. M., 2001. "Recursive and rolling regression-based tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 309-336, December.
    6. Rotger, Gabriel Pons, "undated". "Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots with Temporally Aggregated Time Series," Economics Working Papers 2003-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Yoshinori Kawasaki, 1996. "A Model Selection Approach to detect Seasonal Unit Roots," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-180/7, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Antonio Rubia, 2001. "Testing For Weekly Seasonal Unit Roots In Daily Electricity Demand: Evidence From Deregulated Markets," Working Papers. Serie EC 2001-21, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    9. Steven Cook, 2000. "Frequency domain and time series properties of asymmetric error correction terms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 297-304.
    10. Steven Cook, 2000. "Seasonal adjustment and the univariate testing of asymmetry," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(10), pages 649-652.
    11. Ran Abramitzky & Liran Einav & Oren Rigbi, 2010. "Is Hanukkah Responsive to Christmas?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(545), pages 612-630, June.
    12. Taylor, A. M. Robert, 1997. "On the practical problems of computing seasonal unit root tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 307-318, September.
    13. Swanson, Norman R. & Urbach, Richard, 2015. "Prediction and simulation using simple models characterized by nonstationarity and seasonality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 312-323.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:11:p:735-739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.