The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt: The Euro-area case
AbstractThis article argues that in Euro-area economies, where the European Central Bank (ECB) cannot bail out financially distressed governments, the spending multiplier is adversely affected by the amount of public debt. A regression model on a panel of 26 EU countries over the last 16 years shows that a 10 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is connected to a slowdown in annual growth rates of 0.28 percentage point. Furthermore, the effectiveness of fiscal spending is adversely affected by the amount of public debt; in particular, when the public debt exceeds 150% of GDP, the growth impact of the deficit might turn negative.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 20 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 (May)
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Other versions of this item:
- Radu Vranceanu & Damien Besancenot, 2012. "The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt : the euro area case," Post-Print hal-00728230, HAL.
- Vranceanu, Radu & Besancenot, Damien, 2012. "The spending multiplier in a time of massive public debt : the euro area case," ESSEC Working Papers WP1209, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School, revised 11 Feb 2012.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
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