IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v20y2013i11p1076-1080.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic growth in Greece: the cost of a failed adjustment programme

Author

Listed:
  • T. Efthimiadis
  • S. Papaioannou
  • P. Tsintzos

Abstract

This article aims to assess the cost of failure of Greece's ‘First Economic Adjustment Programme’, in terms of potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. In particular, real GDP trends are estimated through filtering techniques and compared with those had the first programme been successful. The trend growth rate of GDP is estimated at −3.84% (2012Q2), against −2.21% if the targets and forecasts of the first adjustment programme had been realized. The results indicate that the failure of the first programme has had a signifying adverse effect on the country's future growth prospects as current GDP dynamics are far worse than those forecasted in the first programme.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Efthimiadis & S. Papaioannou & P. Tsintzos, 2013. "Economic growth in Greece: the cost of a failed adjustment programme," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1076-1080, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:11:p:1076-1080
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.783679
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2013.783679
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504851.2013.783679?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nitika Bagaria & Dawn Holland & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation During a Depression," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 221(1), pages 42-54, July.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 207-298.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    4. Daniel Gros & Rainer Maurer, 2012. "Can austerity be self-defeating?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 47(3), pages 175-184, May.
    5. Michail Kiriakidis & Antonios Kargas, 2013. "Greek GDP forecast estimates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 767-772, May.
    6. Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A., 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9105, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cyrille Lenoël & Corrado Macchiarelli & Garry Young, 2022. "Greece 2010-18: What could we have done differently?," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 172, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Cyrille Lenoël & Corrado Macchiarelli & Garry Young, 2023. "Greece 2010–18: What Could Have Been Done Differently?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 281-315, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 159-192.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jacques Le Cacheux, 2017. "Croissance potentielle : la politique économique au royaume des aveugles ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 29-39.
    4. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Klemm, Alexander, 2016. "The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 265-279.
    5. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    6. Pappa, Evi & Sajedi, Rana & Vella, Eugenia, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 56-75.
    7. Marco Di Pietro & Luigi Marattin & Raoul Minetti, 2021. "Public debt, sovereign spreads and the unpleasant arithmetic of fiscal consolidations," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 155-178, August.
    8. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    9. Anthony J. Makin, 2015. "Expansionary Versus Contractionary Government Spending," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 56-65, January.
    10. Osti, Davide, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Evidence from Southern European Regions," MPRA Paper 79892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Oriol Carreras & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Spillovers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 468, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    12. Petralias, Athanassios & Petros, Sotirios & Prodromídis, Pródromos, 2013. "Greece in recession: economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 52626, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Dean Baker, 2014. "The enduring effects of the Great Recession on wage growth in the United States," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 195-204, September.
    14. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
    15. Thomas Warmedinger & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers and Beyond," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 139-168, December.
    16. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos S. Savva & Nicolas Syrichas, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Consolidation on Macroeconomic Indicators in Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(1), pages 93-119, June.
    17. Jacques Le Cacheux, 2017. "Croissance potentielle : la politique économique au royaume des aveugles ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 29-39.
    18. Francisco Arizala & Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Mustafa Yenice, 2021. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    19. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    20. Dimitris P. SKALKOS, 2018. "Studying the political economy of reforms: The Greek case, 2010-2017," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 163-186, Summer.
    21. J. Boeckx & M. Deroose, 2016. "Monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area : independent but nevertheless connected," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-25, september.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:11:p:1076-1080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.