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Incorporating decision makers' risk preferences into real options models

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  • Murat Isik

Abstract

This study develops a framework to link the expected utility analysis to real options models in order to capture the joint effects of risk aversion and irreversibility. It aims at modifying the theory of investment under uncertainty by incorporating decision makers' risk preferences and allows explicitly analysing the impacts of risk aversion, uncertainty and irreversibility on decisions such as investment and resource allocations. It addresses the shortcomings of the commonly used expected utility and investment under uncertainty models by generalizing the theory of irreversible investment to allow for risk-averse investors. It was found that uncertainty, irreversibility and risk aversion are important determinants of the optimal timing of irreversible decisions. Ignoring risk preferences in real options models would lead to overestimation or underestimation of the magnitude of investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Isik, 2005. "Incorporating decision makers' risk preferences into real options models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 729-734.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:12:p:729-734
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500192523
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.
    3. Lou, Zhukun & Chen, Siyu & Yin, Wenwei & Zhang, Chuan & Yu, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm innovation: Evidence from a risk-taking perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 78-96.
    4. Marc Baudry & Edouard Civel & Camille Tévenart, 2023. "Land allocation and the adoption of innovative practices in agriculture: a real option modelling of the underlying hidden costs," Working Papers hal-04159839, HAL.
    5. Zan Yang & Shuping Wu, 2019. "Land acquisition outcome, developer risk attitude and land development timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 233-271, August.

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