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Lässt sich der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss mit vertretbarem Aufwand reduzieren?
[Can Fiscal Policies be Used to Reduce Germany’s Current Account Surplus at Reasonable Cost?]

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Priesmeier

    (Bundesfinanzministerium)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss lag 2016 deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 6% im Makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichtsverfahren der EU-Kommission. Dies wird sich so schnell auch nicht ändern. Daher fordern Ökonomen, aber auch der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Binnennachfrage mit Mitteln der Finanzpolitik zu erhöhen. Unter Verwendung eines makroökonometrischen Weltwirtschaftsmodells untersucht der Autor, welchen Einfluss konkrete finanzpolitische Maßnahmen auf die Entwicklung von Bruttoinlandsprodukt und Leistungsbilanz in Deutschland und in der restlichen Eurozone haben könnten. Er kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die internationalen Übertragungseffekte eher gering sind. Um die 6%-Schwelle zu unterschreiten, wäre zudem ein immenses fiskalisches Volumen erforderlich, und die Auswirkungen der temporären Fiskalmaßnahmen auf die öffentliche Verschuldung Deutschlands wären dauerhaft.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Priesmeier, 2017. "Lässt sich der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss mit vertretbarem Aufwand reduzieren? [Can Fiscal Policies be Used to Reduce Germany’s Current Account Surplus at Reasonable Cost?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 97(9), pages 637-643, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:97:y:2017:i:9:d:10.1007_s10273-017-2190-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-017-2190-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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