IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v37y2023i11d10.1007_s11269-023-03549-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improved Treatment of Model Prediction Uncertainty: Estimating Rainfall using Discrete Wavelet Transform and Principal Component Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mahrouz Nourali

    (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, International Campus)

Abstract

It is necessary to select appropriate rainfall series as input to the hydrologic model to access more accurate hydrologic predictions and estimate reliable parameters in the modeling process. For achieving this aim, in the present study, the rainfall multipliers with a combination of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and principal component analysis (PCA) are applied to select effective rainfall series for modeling. DREAM(ZS) algorithm based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme is used to estimate posterior parameters and investigate prediction uncertainties of a five-parameter hydrologic model, HYMOD. The model's results are then compared to those obtained from the other methods that use only the rainfall multipliers or the raw rainfall data. This study reveals the advantages of using a combined application of DWT and PCA methods to estimate hydrological prediction uncertainty and model parameters accurately. Considering the occasional flash flood incident that occurred in the study region (Tamar basin, which is situated in the Gorganroud river basin, Golestan province, Iran), the results of this research can be useful for forecasting floods accurately and planning for flood control management.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahrouz Nourali, 2023. "Improved Treatment of Model Prediction Uncertainty: Estimating Rainfall using Discrete Wavelet Transform and Principal Component Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(11), pages 4211-4231, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03549-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03549-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-023-03549-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-023-03549-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henry Kaiser, 1958. "The varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 23(3), pages 187-200, September.
    2. Henry Kaiser, 1970. "A second generation little jiffy," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 35(4), pages 401-415, December.
    3. Christian Acal & Ana M. Aguilera & Manuel Escabias, 2020. "New Modeling Approaches Based on Varimax Rotation of Functional Principal Components," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-15, November.
    4. R. Venkata Ramana & B. Krishna & S. Kumar & N. Pandey, 2013. "Monthly Rainfall Prediction Using Wavelet Neural Network Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3697-3711, August.
    5. Henry Kaiser, 1974. "An index of factorial simplicity," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 31-36, March.
    6. Ming Wei & Xue-yi You, 2022. "Monthly rainfall forecasting by a hybrid neural network of discrete wavelet transformation and deep learning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4003-4018, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lyndon Lim & Elaine Chapman, 2022. "Development and Preliminary Validation of the Moral Reasoning Questionnaire for Secondary School Students," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    2. Abdul Manaf, Nor Aziah & Mas'ud, Abdulsalam & Ishak, Zuaini & Saad, Natrah & Russell, Alex, 2016. "Towards establishing a scale for assessing the attractiveness of petroleum fiscal regimes – Evidence from Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 253-261.
    3. Mohan Khanal & Sudip Raj Khadka & Harendra Subedi & Indra Prasad Chaulagain & Lok Nath Regmi & Mohan Bhandari, 2023. "Explaining the Factors Affecting Customer Satisfaction at the Fintech Firm F1 Soft by Using PCA and XAI," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Ahmed, Ali M. & Salas, Osvaldo, 2008. "In the back of your mind: Subliminal influences of religious concepts on prosocial behavior," Working Papers in Economics 331, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Prabal Das & D. A. Sachindra & Kironmala Chanda, 2022. "Machine Learning-Based Rainfall Forecasting with Multiple Non-Linear Feature Selection Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6043-6071, December.
    6. Rodríguez-Fuentes, Carlos Javier & Hernández-López, Montserrat, 1997. "Análisis de diferencias estructurales interregionales determinantes en el impacto de la política monetaria," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 7, pages 141-157, Junio.
    7. Belén Casales Morici, 2022. "Strategic corporate entrepreneurship practices in financial services firms: the role of organizational factors," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-26, September.
    8. Hauck, Jana & Suess-Reyes, Julia & Beck, Susanne & Prügl, Reinhard & Frank, Hermann, 2016. "Measuring socioemotional wealth in family-owned and -managed firms: A validation and short form of the FIBER Scale," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 133-148.
    9. Jinan Hatem Issa & Hazri Jamil, 2012. "Criteria Affecting Pre-service TESOL Teachers’ Attitudes towards Using CD-ROM Dictionaries," English Language Teaching, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 5(5), pages 118-118, May.
    10. Robert Semel, 2016. "The Caring-Uncaring Emotional (CUE) Inventory: A Pilot Study of a New Measure of Affective Psychopathy Traits," International Journal of Psychological Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 1-1, December.
    11. Tina Vohra & Mandeep Kaur, 2018. "Determining Reasons for Lower Participation of Women in Indian Stock Market: A Comparative Study of Stock Investors and Non-investors," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(2), pages 87-102, December.
    12. Martha Ríos Manríquez & Celina López Mateo & Julián Ferrer Guerra, 2016. "Factorial Validation of a Corporate Social Responsibility Perception Scale for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 25-38.
    13. Jesús Antonio López Cabrera & Francisco Gabriel Villarreal & Diego Cardoso López, 2023. "Una propuesta de medición de la inclusión financiera en México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(3), pages 1-41, Julio - S.
    14. Tamal Krishna Kayal, 2019. "Primary Education in India: An Analysis of Comparative Performance of Districts," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 13(3), pages 372-381, December.
    15. Headley, Andrea M. & Blount-Hill, Kwan-Lamar & St. John, Victor J., 2021. "The psychology of justice buildings: A survey experiment on police architecture, public sentiment, and race," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Tayyaba Akram & Shen Lei & Muhammad Jamal Haider & Muhammad Waqar Akram, 2017. "What Impact Do Structural, Relational And Cognitive Organisational Social Capital Have On Employee Innovative Work Behaviour? A Study From China," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(02), pages 1-29, February.
    17. Salmai Qari & Kai Konrad & Benny Geys, 2012. "Patriotism, taxation and international mobility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 695-717, June.
    18. Reneiloe Malomane & Innocent Musonda & Chioma Sylvia Okoro, 2022. "The Opportunities and Challenges Associated with the Implementation of Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies to Manage Health and Safety," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-22, January.
    19. Brandon Mastromartino & Tyreal Y. Qian & Jerred J. Wang & James J. Zhang, 2020. "Developing a Fanbase in Niche Sport Markets: An Examination of NHL Fandom and Social Sustainability in the Sunbelt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, February.
    20. David Pla-Santamaria & Mila Bravo & Javier Reig-Mullor & Francisco Salas-Molina, 2021. "A multicriteria approach to manage credit risk under strict uncertainty," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(2), pages 494-523, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03549-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.