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Towards Linking the Sustainable Development Goals and a Novel-Proposed Snow Avalanche Susceptibility Mapping

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  • Hüseyin Akay

    (Gazi Universitesi)

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and snow avalanche susceptibility has been analyzed for the first time. Snow avalanche susceptibility of Uzungöl basin, which is a specially-protected area in Trabzon, Türkiye, was generated by a novel proposal of ensemble modeling of hesitant fuzzy sets and decision tree-based Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. The uncertainty effect of the snow avalanche conditioning factors was expressed regarding the Bel values at each class on snow avalanche susceptibility. Hesitant fuzzy ordered weighted averaging operator was used for aggregation of the ML classification of snow avalanche conditioning factors. The predicted avalanche susceptibility maps were validated by a receiver-operating-characteristics curve method and the areal-percentages of avalanche classes, and avalanche percentages at the classes. Area under curve and true skill statistics values for HFS-J48, HFS-RT and HFS-REPTree for the training process were calculated as 0.985, 0.966, 1.000, 0.989, 0.969, and 0.943, respectively. These values for testing process were calculated as 0.975, 0.947, 0.917, 0.840, 0.955, and 0.920, respectively. Although HFS-RT predicted the best for the training process, the HFS-J48 model was found to be performing the best predictions of snow avalanche susceptibility regarding the testing process and predicted classified areal and avalanche percentages. The findings of this study may contribute to further understanding achievement of many goals regarding environmental, ecological, and spatial, and landscape planning. The results of this study may be considered to achieve the goals of some SDGs such as tourism planning, developing economic activities, providing sustainable transportation, and land use control.

Suggested Citation

  • Hüseyin Akay, 2022. "Towards Linking the Sustainable Development Goals and a Novel-Proposed Snow Avalanche Susceptibility Mapping," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6205-6222, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03350-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03350-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hüseyin Akay & Müsteyde Baduna Koçyiğit, 2021. "An Approach for Determination of the Drainage Network Effect on GIUH Using Hesitant Probabilistic Fuzzy Linguistic Sets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3873-3902, September.
    2. Marwa M. Aly & Neveen H. Refay & Hoda Elattar & Karim M. Morsy & Erick R. Bandala & Samir A. Zein & Mohamed K. Mostafa, 2022. "Ecohydrology and flood risk management under climate vulnerability in relation to the sustainable development goals (SDGs): a case study in Nagaa Mobarak Village, Egypt," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1107-1135, June.
    3. Dilip Kumar Roy & Bithin Datta, 2019. "An Ensemble Meta-Modelling Approach Using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence for Developing Saltwater Intrusion Management Strategies in Coastal Aquifers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 775-795, January.
    4. Peyman Yariyan & Ebrahim Omidvar & Foad Minaei & Rahim Ali Abbaspour & John P. Tiefenbacher, 2022. "An optimization on machine learning algorithms for mapping snow avalanche susceptibility," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 79-114, March.
    5. Huchang Liao & Zeshui Xu & Meimei Xia, 2014. "Multiplicative Consistency Of Hesitant Fuzzy Preference Relation And Its Application In Group Decision Making," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 47-76.
    6. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
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