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Groundwater Level Forecast Via a Discrete Space-State Modelling Approach as a Surrogate to Complex Groundwater Simulation Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Dilip Kumar Roy

    (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute)

  • Sujit Kumar Biswas

    (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute)

  • Kowshik Kumar Saha

    (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute)

  • Khandakar Faisal Ibn Murad

    (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute)

Abstract

Reliable and precise forecasts of future groundwater level fluctuations are crucial constituents of sustainable management of scarce water resources and design of remediation plans. Groundwater simulations and predictions are often performed by employing physically based models, which are not applicable in a majority of water scarce areas around the globe, particularly in the developing countries like Bangladesh due to data limitations. On the other hand, data-driven statistical forecast models have demonstrated their suitability to model nonlinear and complex hydrogeological processes to forecast short- and long-term groundwater level fluctuations. The purpose of this effort is to propose a non-physical based approach by utilizing a discrete Space-State model as a prediction tool to forecast future scenarios of groundwater level fluctuations. The present study utilizes the prediction focused approach of the system identification process in which the overall objective is to develop a pragmatic dynamic system model. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for groundwater level data at three observation wells of Tanore upazilla in Rajshahi district, Bangladesh. Historical weekly time series data of groundwater level fluctuations from the three observation wells for 39 (1980–2018) years is used to develop the time series model, which is used for future groundwater level predictions for a period of next 22 years (up to 2040). The findings demonstrate the conceivable applicability of the proposed discrete Space-State modelling approach in forecasting future scenarios of groundwater level fluctuations in the selected observation wells.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilip Kumar Roy & Sujit Kumar Biswas & Kowshik Kumar Saha & Khandakar Faisal Ibn Murad, 2021. "Groundwater Level Forecast Via a Discrete Space-State Modelling Approach as a Surrogate to Complex Groundwater Simulation Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1653-1672, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02787-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02787-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thendiyath Roshni & Madan K. Jha & Ravinesh C. Deo & A. Vandana, 2019. "Development and Evaluation of Hybrid Artificial Neural Network Architectures for Modeling Spatio-Temporal Groundwater Fluctuations in a Complex Aquifer System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2381-2397, May.
    2. Yicheng Gong & Yongxiang Zhang & Shuangshuang Lan & Huan Wang, 2016. "A Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Forecasting Groundwater Levels near Lake Okeechobee, Florida," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 375-391, January.
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    4. S. Mohanty & Madan Jha & S. Raul & R. Panda & K. Sudheer, 2015. "Using Artificial Neural Network Approach for Simultaneous Forecasting of Weekly Groundwater Levels at Multiple Sites," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5521-5532, December.
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    6. Sandra M. Guzman & Joel O. Paz & Mary Love M. Tagert, 2017. "The Use of NARX Neural Networks to Forecast Daily Groundwater Levels," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1591-1603, March.
    7. Sheelabhadra Mohanty & Madan Jha & Ashwani Kumar & K. Sudheer, 2010. "Artificial Neural Network Modeling for Groundwater Level Forecasting in a River Island of Eastern India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(9), pages 1845-1865, July.
    8. Vahid Moosavi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Bagher Shirmohammadi & Negin Behnia, 2013. "A Wavelet-ANFIS Hybrid Model for Groundwater Level Forecasting for Different Prediction Periods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1301-1321, March.
    9. Samad Emamgholizadeh & Khadije Moslemi & Gholamhosein Karami, 2014. "Prediction the Groundwater Level of Bastam Plain (Iran) by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5433-5446, December.
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    11. Yicheng Gong & Yongxiang Zhang & Shuangshuang Lan & Huan Wang, 2016. "A Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Forecasting Groundwater Levels near Lake Okeechobee, Florida," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 375-391, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shima Kamali & Keyvan Asghari, 2023. "The Effect of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought on Groundwater Storage Under Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(8), pages 2925-2943, June.

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