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The Effect of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought on Groundwater Storage Under Climate Change Scenarios

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  • Shima Kamali

    (Isfahan University of Technology)

  • Keyvan Asghari

    (Isfahan University of Technology)

Abstract

The aim of this study was investigating the effect of drought on groundwater storage and measuring the impact of future drought events under climate change conditions on Najafabad aquifer in Iran. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) model was developed to simulate groundwater storage by using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to optimize SVM parameters. Various meteorological and hydrological drought indices were considered as model inputs and the best combination of drought indices was selected by the Gamma Test (GT) method. The drought analysis revealed that the Groundwater Resource Index (GRI) and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were the most effective indices in modelling the aquifer. To examine future drought events under climate change, the outputs of five ISI-MIP5 (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) General Circulation Models (GCMs) were derived under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results indicated that the most severe droughts will occur during the years 2035–2039 and 2033–2041 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Continuing the current aquifer withdrawal policy, the groundwater storage will be affected by future drought events and decrease by 8.8% and 9.5% compared to the base period (1990–2016) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Shima Kamali & Keyvan Asghari, 2023. "The Effect of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought on Groundwater Storage Under Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(8), pages 2925-2943, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03268-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03268-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
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    4. Dilip Kumar Roy & Sujit Kumar Biswas & Kowshik Kumar Saha & Khandakar Faisal Ibn Murad, 2021. "Groundwater Level Forecast Via a Discrete Space-State Modelling Approach as a Surrogate to Complex Groundwater Simulation Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1653-1672, April.
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