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Aquifers Management through Evolutionary Bayesian Networks: The Altiplano Case Study (SE Spain)

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  • Jose-Luis Molina
  • Raziyeh Farmani
  • John Bromley

Abstract

An approach for the integration of Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBNs) and Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization (EMO) is proposed for integrated water resource management and decision support. Bayesian Networks (BNs) offer a novel and powerful tool for modelling complex water systems, facilitating the use of hierarchical modelling by improving the efficiency and communication between the different parts of a model. EMO offers a range of non-dominated optimal management solutions on a Pareto front that facilitate the identification of tradeoffs among conflicting criteria regarding stakeholder’s preferences. The integrated tool provides new possibilities for undertaking an integrated analysis where stakeholder participation can play an important role. It is used for simultaneously analysing the whole water system, characterising uncertainty as probabilities and evaluating different management options. The tool is applied to an overexploited water system located in Southern Spain that is supplied totally by groundwater. In this study, a complex model based on BNs is designed and used as the core of the study. The transition to Evolutionary Bayesian networks (EOBNs) allows stakeholder involvement to be utilized more effectively for designing and evaluating the model’s consistency, and taking into account their conflicting interests. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Jose-Luis Molina & Raziyeh Farmani & John Bromley, 2011. "Aquifers Management through Evolutionary Bayesian Networks: The Altiplano Case Study (SE Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3883-3909, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:14:p:3883-3909
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9893-z
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    2. Janez Sušnik & Jose-Luis Molina & Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia & Dragan Savić & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Comparative Analysis of System Dynamics and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks Modelling for Water Systems Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(3), pages 819-841, February.
    3. Alessandro Pagano & Raffaele Giordano & Ivan Portoghese & Umberto Fratino & Michele Vurro, 2014. "A Bayesian vulnerability assessment tool for drinking water mains under extreme events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2193-2227, December.

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