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Comparative Analysis of System Dynamics and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks Modelling for Water Systems Management

Author

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  • Janez Sušnik
  • Jose-Luis Molina
  • Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia
  • Dragan Savić
  • Zoran Kapelan

Abstract

This paper presents a comparative analysis of System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN). Both techniques are extensively used for water resources modelling due to their flexibility, effectiveness in assessing different management options, ease of operation and suitability for encouraging stakeholder involvement. Conversely, both approaches have several important differences that make them complementary. For example, while SDM is more suitable for simulating the feedback dynamics of processes, OOBN modelling is a powerful tool for modelling systems with uncertain inputs (or outputs) characterised by probability distributions. This comparative analysis is applied to the Kairouan aquifer system, Tunisia, where the aquifer plays an essential role for socio-economic development in the region. Both models produced comparable results using baseline data, and show their complementarity through a suite of scenario tests. It is shown that reducing pumping of groundwater to coastal cities may prove the key to reducing the current aquifer deficit, though local demand reduction must be considered to preserve the agricultural economy. It is suggested that water management assessment should be tackled using both approaches to complement each other, adding depth and insight, and giving a more coherent picture of the problem being addressed, allowing for robust policy decisions to be made. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Janez Sušnik & Jose-Luis Molina & Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia & Dragan Savić & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Comparative Analysis of System Dynamics and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks Modelling for Water Systems Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(3), pages 819-841, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:3:p:819-841
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0217-8
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