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Change point detection for nonparametric regression under strongly mixing process

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  • Qing Yang

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Yu-Ning Li

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Yi Zhang

    (Zhejiang University)

Abstract

In this article, we consider the estimation of the structural change point in the nonparametric model with dependent observations. We introduce a maximum-CUSUM-estimation procedure, where the CUSUM statistic is constructed based on the sum-of-squares aggregation of the difference of the two Nadaraya-Watson estimates using the observations before and after a specific time point. Under some mild conditions, we prove that the statistic tends to zero almost surely if there is no change, and is larger than a threshold asymptotically almost surely otherwise, which helps us to obtain a threshold-detection strategy. Furthermore, we demonstrate the strong consistency of the change point estimator. In the simulation, we discuss the selection of the bandwidth and the threshold used in the estimation, and show the robustness of our method in the long-memory scenario. We implement our method to the data of Nasdaq 100 index and find that the relation between the realized volatility and the return exhibits several structural changes in 2007–2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Qing Yang & Yu-Ning Li & Yi Zhang, 2020. "Change point detection for nonparametric regression under strongly mixing process," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1465-1506, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:61:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s00362-020-01196-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-020-01196-y
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    1. Georgy Sofronov & Martin Wendler & Volkmar Liebscher, 2020. "Editorial for the special issue: Change point detection," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1347-1349, August.
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    3. Joseph Ngatchou-Wandji & Echarif Elharfaoui & Michel Harel, 2022. "On change-points tests based on two-samples U-Statistics for weakly dependent observations," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 287-316, February.

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