IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stmapp/v30y2021i4d10.1007_s10260-020-00553-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The sufficiency of the evidence, the relevancy of the evidence, and quantifying both with a single number

Author

Listed:
  • David R. Bickel

    (University of Ottawa)

Abstract

Consider a data set as a body of evidence that might confirm or disconfirm a hypothesis about a parameter value. If the posterior probability of the hypothesis is high enough, then the truth of the hypothesis is accepted for some purpose such as reporting a new discovery. In that way, the posterior probability measures the sufficiency of the evidence for accepting the hypothesis. It would only follow that the evidence is relevant to the hypothesis if the prior probability were not already high enough for acceptance. A measure of the relevancy of the evidence is the Bayes factor since it is the ratio of the posterior odds to the prior odds. Measures of the sufficiency of the evidence and measures of the relevancy of the evidence are not mutually exclusive. An example falling in both classes is the likelihood ratio statistic, perhaps based on a pseudolikelihood function that eliminates nuisance parameters. There is a sense in which the likelihood ratio statistic measures both the sufficiency of the evidence and its relevancy. That result is established by representing the likelihood ratio statistic in terms of a conditional possibility measure that satisfies logical coherence rather than probabilistic coherence.

Suggested Citation

  • David R. Bickel, 2021. "The sufficiency of the evidence, the relevancy of the evidence, and quantifying both with a single number," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(4), pages 1157-1174, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:30:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10260-020-00553-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-020-00553-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10260-020-00553-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10260-020-00553-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Hsiuying, 2007. "Modified p-values for one-sided testing in restricted parameter spaces," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(6), pages 625-631, March.
    2. Hoch, Jeffrey S. & Blume, Jeffrey D., 2008. "Measuring and illustrating statistical evidence in a cost-effectiveness analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 476-495, March.
    3. Strug, Lisa J. & Rohde, Charles A. & Corey, Paul N., 2007. "An Introduction to Evidential Sample Size Calculations," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 61, pages 207-212, August.
    4. Youngjo Lee & John A. Nelder, 2006. "Double hierarchical generalized linear models (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 139-185, April.
    5. David R. Bickel, 2011. "Estimating the Null Distribution to Adjust Observed Confidence Levels for Genome-Scale Screening," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 363-370, June.
    6. P. Walley & S. Moral, 1999. "Upper probabilities based only on the likelihood function," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(4), pages 831-847.
    7. Stephan Morgenthaler & Robert G. Staudte, 2012. "Advantages of Variance Stabilization," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 39(4), pages 714-728, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanyuan Ma & Marc G. Genton, 2010. "Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(4), pages 475-495, September.
    2. Bohua Yu & Wei Song & Yanqing Lang, 2017. "Spatial Patterns and Driving Forces of Greenhouse Land Change in Shouguang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Leckie, George, 2014. "runmixregls: A Program to Run the MIXREGLS Mixed-Effects Location Scale Software from within Stata," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 59(c02).
    4. Rabindra Nath Das & Jeong-Soo Park, 2012. "Discrepancy in regression estimates between log-normal and gamma: some case studies," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 97-111, March.
    5. Sun-Joo Cho & Paul Boeck & Susan Embretson & Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, 2014. "Additive Multilevel Item Structure Models with Random Residuals: Item Modeling for Explanation and Item Generation," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 84-104, January.
    6. Lee, Sangin & Lee, Youngjo & Pawitan, Yudi, 2018. "Sparse pathway-based prediction models for high-throughput molecular data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 125-135.
    7. Lee, Sangin & Pawitan, Yudi & Lee, Youngjo, 2015. "A random-effect model approach for group variable selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 147-157.
    8. Luke A. Prendergast & Robert G. Staudte, 2017. "When large n is not enough – Distribution-free interval estimators for ratios of quantiles," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(3), pages 277-293, September.
    9. Peter McCullagh, 2008. "Sampling bias and logistic models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 643-677, September.
    10. I. Gijbels & I. Prosdocimi, 2011. "Smooth estimation of mean and dispersion function in extended generalized additive models with application to Italian induced abortion data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 2391-2411, December.
    11. Lee, Woojoo & Lim, Johan & Lee, Youngjo & del Castillo, Joan, 2011. "The hierarchical-likelihood approach to autoregressive stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 248-260, January.
    12. Stephen R. Martin & Philippe Rast, 2022. "The Reliability Factor: Modeling Individual Reliability with Multiple Items from a Single Assessment," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1318-1342, December.
    13. Wu, Jianmin & Bentler, Peter M., 2013. "Limited information estimation in binary factor analysis: A review and extension," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 392-403.
    14. Rezzy Eko Caraka & Yusra Yusra & Toni Toharudin & Rung-Ching Chen & Mohammad Basyuni & Vilzati Juned & Prana Ugiana Gio & Bens Pardamean, 2021. "Did Noise Pollution Really Improve during COVID-19? Evidence from Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, May.
    15. Dirk Müller & Eleanor Pullenayegum & Afschin Gandjour, 2015. "Impact of small study bias on cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and value of information analyses," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(2), pages 219-223, March.
    16. Yu, Dalei & Yau, Kelvin K.W., 2012. "Conditional Akaike information criterion for generalized linear mixed models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 629-644.
    17. Kwon, Sunghoon & Oh, Seungyoung & Lee, Youngjo, 2016. "The use of random-effect models for high-dimensional variable selection problems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 401-412.
    18. Jiin Choi & Stewart J. Anderson & Thomas J. Richards & Wesley K. Thompson, 2014. "Prediction of transplant-free survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients using joint models for event times and mixed multivariate longitudinal data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 2192-2205, October.
    19. Yudi Pawitan & Youngjo Lee, 2017. "Wallet Game: Probability, Likelihood, and Extended Likelihood," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 120-122, April.
    20. David R. Bickel, 2013. "Minimax-Optimal Strength of Statistical Evidence for a Composite Alternative Hypothesis," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(2), pages 188-206, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:30:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10260-020-00553-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.