IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sochwe/v48y2017i2d10.1007_s00355-016-1012-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The prediction value

Author

Listed:
  • Maurice Koster

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Sascha Kurz

    (University of Bayreuth)

  • Ines Lindner

    (VU University)

  • Stefan Napel

    (University of Bayreuth
    Public Choice Research Centre)

Abstract

We introduce the prediction value (PV) of player i as the difference between the conditional expectations of v(S) when i cooperates or not in a probabilistic TU game. The latter combines a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. The PV reflects the importance of information about a given player’s behavior for predicting, e.g., committee decisions that are subject to opinion interdependencies. The PV is characterized by anonymity, linearity, a consistency requirement and two normalization conditions. Every multinomial probabilistic value, hence every binomial semivalue, coincides with the PV for a particular family of probability distributions. So the PV can be regarded as a power index in specific cases. Conversely, some semivalues—including the Banzhaf but not the Shapley value—can be interpreted in terms of informational importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Koster & Sascha Kurz & Ines Lindner & Stefan Napel, 2017. "The prediction value," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 48(2), pages 433-460, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:48:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00355-016-1012-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00355-016-1012-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00355-016-1012-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00355-016-1012-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Annick Laruelle & Federico Valenciano, 2005. "Assessing success and decisiveness in voting situations," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 24(1), pages 171-197, January.
    2. Lehrer, E, 1988. "An Axiomatization of the Banzhaf Value," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 17(2), pages 89-99.
    3. René Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2013. "Measuring power and satisfaction in societies with opinion leaders: an axiomatization," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(3), pages 671-683, September.
    4. Adrian van Deemen & Agnieszka Rusinowska, 2010. "Collective Decision Making: Views from Social Choice and Game Theory," Post-Print hal-00514840, HAL.
    5. André Casajus, 2012. "Amalgamating players, symmetry, and the Banzhaf value," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 41(3), pages 497-515, August.
    6. René van den Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2013. "Measuring Power and Satisfaction in Societies with Opinion Leaders," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00756720, HAL.
    7. Guillermo Owen, 1972. "Multilinear Extensions of Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(5-Part-2), pages 64-79, January.
    8. Hart, Sergiu & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1989. "Potential, Value, and Consistency," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 589-614, May.
    9. Joe Neeman, 2014. "A law of large numbers for weighted plurality," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 42(1), pages 99-109, January.
    10. Michel Grabisch & Agnieszka Rusinowska, 2010. "Different Approaches to Influence Based on Social Networks and Simple Games," Post-Print hal-00514850, HAL.
    11. Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 2002. "Variations on the shapley value," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 54, pages 2055-2076, Elsevier.
    12. Carreras, Francesc & Freixas, Josep, 2008. "On ordinal equivalence of power measures given by regular semivalues," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 221-234, March.
    13. E. Calvo & Juan Carlos Santos, 2000. "Weighted weak semivalues," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 29(1), pages 1-9.
    14. Josep Freixas & M. Puente, 2002. "Reliability Importance Measures of the Components in a System Based on Semivalues and Probabilistic Values," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 331-342, January.
    15. Pradeep Dubey & Abraham Neyman & Robert James Weber, 1981. "Value Theory Without Efficiency," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 122-128, February.
    16. Francesc Carreras & María Albina Puente, 2012. "Symmetric Coalitional Binomial Semivalues," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 637-662, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grimmett, Geoffrey R., 2019. "On influence and compromise in two-tier voting systems," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 35-45.
    2. Sascha Kurz & Nicola Maaser & Stefan Napel & Matthias Weber, 2014. "Mostly Sunny: A Forecast of Tomorrow's Power Index Research," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-058/I, Tinbergen Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Radzik, Tadeusz, 2012. "A new look at the role of players’ weights in the weighted Shapley value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 407-416.
    2. René Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2013. "Measuring power and satisfaction in societies with opinion leaders: an axiomatization," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(3), pages 671-683, September.
    3. René van den Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2009. "Measuring Power and Satisfaction in Societies with Opinion Leaders: Dictator and Opinion Leader Properties," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Francesc Carreras & María Albina Puente, 2018. "A note on multinomial probabilistic values," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 26(1), pages 164-186, April.
    5. McQuillin, Ben & Sugden, Robert, 2018. "Balanced externalities and the Shapley value," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 81-92.
    6. Annick Laruelle & Federico Valenciano, 2008. "Potential, value, and coalition formation," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 16(1), pages 73-89, July.
    7. Margarita Domènech & José Miguel Giménez & María Albina Puente, 2022. "Weak null, necessary defender and necessary detractor players: characterizations of the Banzhaf and the Shapley bisemivalues," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 318(2), pages 889-910, November.
    8. Amer, Rafael & Gimenez, Jose Miguel, 2006. "An axiomatic characterization for regular semivalues," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 217-226, March.
    9. Francesc Carreras & María Albina Puente, 2012. "Symmetric Coalitional Binomial Semivalues," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 637-662, September.
    10. Francesc Carreras & María Albina Puente, 2015. "Multinomial Probabilistic Values," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 981-991, November.
    11. M. Álvarez-Mozos & O. Tejada, 2015. "The Banzhaf value in the presence of externalities," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 44(4), pages 781-805, April.
    12. Josep Freixas & Montserrat Pons, 2017. "Using the Multilinear Extension to Study Some Probabilistic Power Indices," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 437-452, May.
    13. René van den Brink & Agnieszka Rusinowska & Frank Steffen, 2013. "Measuring Power and Satisfaction in Societies with Opinion Leaders," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00756720, HAL.
    14. Carreras, Francesc & Llongueras, Maria Dolors & Puente, María Albina, 2009. "Partnership formation and binomial semivalues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 487-499, January.
    15. Ori Haimanko, 2019. "Composition independence in compound games: a characterization of the Banzhaf power index and the Banzhaf value," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 48(3), pages 755-768, September.
    16. Federico Valenciano & Annick Laruelle, 2003. "Potential, Value And Probability," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    17. Haimanko, Ori, 2018. "The axiom of equivalence to individual power and the Banzhaf index," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 391-400.
    18. Calvo, Emilio & Santos, Juan Carlos, 1997. "Potentials in cooperative TU-games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 175-190, October.
    19. Ibarzabal, Nora & Laruelle, Annick, 2018. "Ghost seats in parliaments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 354-363.
    20. Amer, Rafael & Gimenez, Jose Miguel, 2007. "The two-person blocks as a way to emphasize several semivalues," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 172-184, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Influence; Voting games; Cooperative games; Banzhaf value; Shapley value;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:48:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00355-016-1012-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.