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Measuring the effect of negative interest rate on New Zealand banks

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  • W. A. Razzak

    (Massey University)

Abstract

We derive an equilibrium lending and deposit rates from a constrained profit optimization model, and estimated them over the period from 1999 to 2020. Then, dynamic stochastic baseline projections of these equilibrium rates and bank profit, and their projections under a counterfactual scenario of a negative interest rate, were produced for the period 2020–2024. The model predicts that a negative official cash rate (OCR) lowers the lending and deposit rates on average over the period Jun 2020 to Dec 2024; but the lending rate is higher than the deposit rate. It also increases the volatility of these rates relative to baseline projections. Negative OCR increases both incomes and costs; however, bank profit increases on average, by about 19% relative to baseline projections over the period Sep 2020 to Dec 2024. However, that increase of bank profit is associated with more uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • W. A. Razzak, 2021. "Measuring the effect of negative interest rate on New Zealand banks," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:1:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s43546-020-00038-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-020-00038-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lending rate; Deposit rate; Bank profit; Negative interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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