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Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown

Author

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  • Nicolò Gatti

    (Università della Svizzera Italiana)

  • Beatrice Retali

    (Università della Svizzera Italiana)

Abstract

The implementation of a lockdown to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a strong economic and political debate in several countries. This makes it crucial to shed light on the actual benefits of such kind of policy. To this purpose, we focus on the Swiss lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 infections and estimate the number of potentially saved lives. To predict the number of deaths in the absence of any restrictive measure, we develop a novel age-structured SIRDC model which accounts for age-specific endogenous behavioral responses and for seasonal patterns in the spread of the virus. Including the additional fatalities which would have materialized because of the shortage of healthcare resources, our estimates suggest that the lockdown prevented more than 11,200 deaths between March and the beginning of September 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolò Gatti & Beatrice Retali, 2021. "Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:157:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-021-00072-2
    DOI: 10.1186/s41937-021-00072-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2023. "Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Mingolla, Stefano & Lu, Zhongming, 2022. "Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 504-511.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Lockdown; Saved lives; SIRDC model; SIR model; Behavioral responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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