IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sistpr/v21y2018i1d10.1007_s11203-016-9153-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A non-parametric Bayesian approach to decompounding from high frequency data

Author

Listed:
  • Shota Gugushvili

    (Leiden University)

  • Frank Meulen

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Peter Spreij

    (University of Amsterdam
    Radboud University Nijmegen)

Abstract

Given a sample from a discretely observed compound Poisson process, we consider non-parametric estimation of the density $$f_0$$ f 0 of its jump sizes, as well as of its intensity $$\lambda _0.$$ λ 0 . We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and specify the prior on $$f_0$$ f 0 as the Dirichlet location mixture of normal densities. An independent prior for $$\lambda _0$$ λ 0 is assumed to be compactly supported and to possess a positive density with respect to the Lebesgue measure. We show that under suitable assumptions the posterior contracts around the pair $$(\lambda _0,\,f_0)$$ ( λ 0 , f 0 ) at essentially (up to a logarithmic factor) the $$\sqrt{n\Delta }$$ n Δ -rate, where n is the number of observations and $$\Delta $$ Δ is the mesh size at which the process is sampled. The emphasis is on high frequency data, $$\Delta \rightarrow 0,$$ Δ → 0 , but the obtained results are also valid for fixed $$\Delta .$$ Δ . In either case we assume that $$n\Delta \rightarrow \infty .$$ n Δ → ∞ . Our main result implies existence of Bayesian point estimates converging (in the frequentist sense, in probability) to $$(\lambda _0,\,f_0)$$ ( λ 0 , f 0 ) at the same rate. We also discuss a practical implementation of our approach. The computational problem is dealt with by inclusion of auxiliary variables and we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that samples from the joint distribution of the unknown parameters in the mixture density and the introduced auxiliary variables. Numerical examples illustrate the feasibility of this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Shota Gugushvili & Frank Meulen & Peter Spreij, 2018. "A non-parametric Bayesian approach to decompounding from high frequency data," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 53-79, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sistpr:v:21:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11203-016-9153-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11203-016-9153-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11203-016-9153-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11203-016-9153-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scalas, Enrico, 2006. "The application of continuous-time random walks in finance and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 362(2), pages 225-239.
    2. Sylvia. Richardson & Peter J. Green, 1997. "On Bayesian Analysis of Mixtures with an Unknown Number of Components (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(4), pages 731-792.
    3. Richard Nickl & Markus Reiß, 2012. "A Donsker Theorem for Lévy Measures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Boris Buchmann & Rudolf Grübel, 2004. "Decompounding poisson random sums: Recursively truncated estimates in the discrete case," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 56(4), pages 743-756, December.
    5. Fabienne Comte & Valentine Genon-Catalot, 2010. "Non-parametric estimation for pure jump irregularly sampled or noisy Lévy processes," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 64(s1), pages 290-313.
    6. Fabienne Comte & Céline Duval & Valentine Genon-Catalot, 2014. "Nonparametric density estimation in compound Poisson processes using convolution power estimators," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 163-183, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Olivier Goffard & Patrick Laub, 2021. "Approximate Bayesian Computations to fit and compare insurance loss models," Post-Print hal-02891046, HAL.
    2. Goffard, Pierre-Olivier & Laub, Patrick J., 2021. "Approximate Bayesian Computations to fit and compare insurance loss models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 350-371.
    3. Wolfgang Karcher & Stefan Roth & Evgeny Spodarev & Corinna Walk, 2019. "An inverse problem for infinitely divisible moving average random fields," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 263-306, July.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Goffard & Patrick Laub, 2021. "Approximate Bayesian Computations to fit and compare insurance loss models," Working Papers hal-02891046, HAL.
    5. Shota Gugushvili & Ester Mariucci & Frank van der Meulen, 2020. "Decompounding discrete distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(2), pages 464-492, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vetter, Mathias, 2014. "Inference on the Lévy measure in case of noisy observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 125-133.
    2. Shota Gugushvili & Ester Mariucci & Frank van der Meulen, 2020. "Decompounding discrete distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(2), pages 464-492, June.
    3. Shuang Zhang & Xingdong Feng, 2022. "Distributed identification of heterogeneous treatment effects," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 57-89, March.
    4. Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2018. "Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 456-476.
    5. Reiß, Markus, 2013. "Testing the characteristics of a Lévy process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2808-2828.
    6. Sik-Yum Lee, 2006. "Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 541-564, September.
    7. Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2022. "Bayesian nonparametric learning of how skill is distributed across the mutual fund industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 131-153.
    8. Cai, Jing-Heng & Song, Xin-Yuan & Lam, Kwok-Hap & Ip, Edward Hak-Sing, 2011. "A mixture of generalized latent variable models for mixed mode and heterogeneous data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(11), pages 2889-2907, November.
    9. N. T. Longford & Pierpaolo D'Urso, 2011. "Mixture models with an improper component," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 2511-2521, January.
    10. Ungolo, Francesco & Kleinow, Torsten & Macdonald, Angus S., 2020. "A hierarchical model for the joint mortality analysis of pension scheme data with missing covariates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 68-84.
    11. Conti, Gabriella & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Heckman, James J. & Piatek, Rémi, 2014. "Bayesian exploratory factor analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 31-57.
    12. Zhengyi Zhou & David S. Matteson & Dawn B. Woodard & Shane G. Henderson & Athanasios C. Micheas, 2015. "A Spatio-Temporal Point Process Model for Ambulance Demand," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 6-15, March.
    13. Park, Byung-Jung & Zhang, Yunlong & Lord, Dominique, 2010. "Bayesian mixture modeling approach to account for heterogeneity in speed data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 662-673, June.
    14. E. Zanini & E. Eastoe & M. J. Jones & D. Randell & P. Jonathan, 2020. "Flexible covariate representations for extremes," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), August.
    15. Wu, C.C. & Lee, Jack C., 2007. "Estimation of a utility-based asset pricing model using normal mixture GARCH(1,1)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 329-349, March.
    16. Wang, Ketong & Porter, Michael D., 2018. "Optimal Bayesian clustering using non-negative matrix factorization," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 395-411.
    17. Villani, Mattias & Kohn, Robert & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Regression density estimation using smooth adaptive Gaussian mixtures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 155-173, December.
    18. Francisco Richter & Bart Haegeman & Rampal S. Etienne & Ernst C. Wit, 2020. "Introducing a general class of species diversification models for phylogenetic trees," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 74(3), pages 261-274, August.
    19. Nalini Ravishanker & Dipak K. Dey, 2000. "Multivariate Survival Models with a Mixture of Positive Stable Frailties," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 293-308, September.
    20. Kozumi, Hideo, 2004. "Posterior analysis of latent competing risk models by parallel tempering," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 441-458, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sistpr:v:21:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11203-016-9153-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.