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On Growth, Ageing, and Fractal Differentiation of Science

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  • Anthony F. J. van Raan

    (University of Leiden)

Abstract

On the basis of the measured time-dependent distribution of references in recent scientific publications, we formulate a novel model on the ageing of recent scientific literature. The framework of this model is given by a basic set of mathematical expressions that allows us to understand and describe large-scale growth and ageing processes in science over a long period of time. In addition, a further and striking consequence results in a self- consistent way from our model. After the Scientific Revolution in 16th century Europe, the 'Scientific Evolution' begins, and the driving processes growth and ageing unavoidably lead - just as in our biological evolution - to a fractal differentiation of science. A fractal structure means a system build up with sub-systems characterised by a power-law size distribution. Such a distribution implies that there is no preference of size or scale. Often this phenomenon is regarded as a fingerprint of self-organisation. These findings are in agreement with earlier empirical findings concerning the clustering of scientific literature. Our observations reinforce the idea of science as a complex, largely self-organising 'cognitive eco-system'. They also refute Kuhn's paradigm model of scientific development.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony F. J. van Raan, 2000. "On Growth, Ageing, and Fractal Differentiation of Science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 47(2), pages 347-362, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:47:y:2000:i:2:d:10.1023_a:1005647328460
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005647328460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Youngki Lee & Luis A. N. Amaral & David Canning & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations," Papers cond-mat/9804100, arXiv.org.
    2. Vasiliki Plerou & Luís A. Nunes Amaral & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Similarities between the growth dynamics of university research and of competitive economic activities," Nature, Nature, vol. 400(6743), pages 433-437, July.
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