IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fce/doctra/1829.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Debunking the Granular origins of Aggregate fluctuations : from real Business Cycles back to Keynes

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy)

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE Sciences Po, Paris, France)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy and OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris France)

  • Tania Treibich

    (Maastricht University , & Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy)

Abstract

In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate volatility. Yet, we question the original view grounded on “supply granularity”, as proxied by productivity growth shocks – in line with the Real Business Cycle framework–, and we provide empirical evidence of a “demand granularity”, based on investment growth shocks instead. The role of demand in explaining aggregate fluctuations is further corroborated by means of a macroeconomic Agent-Based Model of the “Schumpeter meeting Keynes” family (Dosi et al., 2015). Indeed, the investigation of the possible microfoundation of RBC has led us to the identification of a sort of microfounded Keynesian multiplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2018. "The Debunking the Granular origins of Aggregate fluctuations : from real Business Cycles back to Keynes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-29, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1829
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ofce.sciencespo.fr/pdf/dtravail/OFCEWP2018-29.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Williams, Michael A. & Pinto, Brijesh P. & Park, David, 2015. "Global evidence on the distribution of firm growth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 102-107.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    6. di Giovanni, Julian & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain, 2011. "Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 42-52, September.
    7. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3qv4spsglp8tmorvev1h0duo4p is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2017. "The footprint of evolutionary processes of learning and selection upon the statistical properties of industrial dynamics," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 187-210.
    10. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    11. Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2003. "Comparative Analysis of Firm Demographics and Survival: Micro-Level Evidence for the OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 348, OECD Publishing.
    12. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    13. Ascari, Guido & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2015. "Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 465-476, March.
    14. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    15. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    16. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    17. Omar Blanco Arroyo & Simone Alfarano, 2017. "Granularity of the Business Cycle Fluctuations: The Spanish Case," Economia Coyuntural,Revista de temas de perspectivas y coyuntura, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales 'Jose Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, vol. 2(1), pages 31-58.
    18. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2009. "The patterns of output growth of firms and countries: Scale invariances and scale specificities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 475-495, December.
    19. Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival: evidence from micro-level sources in OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 365-391, June.
    20. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    21. Malerba,Franco & Brusoni,Stefano (ed.), 2007. "Perspectives on Innovation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521685610, October.
    22. Nunes Amaral, Luís A & Buldyrev, Sergey V & Havlin, Shlomo & Maass, Philipp & Salinger, Michael A & Eugene Stanley, H & Stanley, Michael H.R, 1997. "Scaling behavior in economics: The problem of quantifying company growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 1-24.
    23. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2006. "Explaining the distribution of firm growth rates," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(2), pages 235-256, June.
    24. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    25. Giulio Bottazzi & Le Li & Angelo Secchi, 2019. "Aggregate fluctuations and the distribution of firm growth rates," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 635-656.
    26. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
    27. Youngki Lee & Luis A. N. Amaral & David Canning & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations," Papers cond-mat/9804100, arXiv.org.
    28. Franco Malerba, 2007. "Innovation and the evolution of industries," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Franco Malerba (ed.), Innovation, Industrial Dynamics and Structural Transformation, pages 7-27, Springer.
    29. Malerba,Franco & Brusoni,Stefano (ed.), 2007. "Perspectives on Innovation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521866644, October.
    30. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1083-1132.
    31. G. Bottazzi & E. Cefis & G. Dosi & A. Secchi, 2007. "Invariances and Diversities in the Patterns of Industrial Evolution: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Industries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 137-159, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Citera, Emanuele & Gouri Suresh, Shyam & Setterfield, Mark, 2023. "The network origins of aggregate fluctuations: A demand-side approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 111-123.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    3. Corrado Di Guilmi & Yoshi Fujiwara, 2020. "Does the supply network shape the firm size distribution? The Japanese case," CAMA Working Papers 2020-66, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Adriano Maia & Guilherme De Oliveira & Raul Matsushita & Sergio Da Silva, 2023. "Granular banks and corporate investment," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 586-599, September.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2022. "The determinants of aggregate fluctuations: The role of firm‐borrowing channels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(1), pages 20-34, January.
    7. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    8. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
    9. Ichiro Takahashi & Isamu Okada, 2020. "An artificial Wicksell–Keynes economy integrating short-run business cycle and long-term cumulative trend," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 953-998, October.
    10. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    11. Jannati, Sima & Korniotis, George & Kumar, Alok, 2020. "Big fish in a small pond: Locally dominant firms and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 219-240.
    12. Papa, Javier, 2019. "What is behind aggregate productivity growth in Ireland? A granular approach," MPRA Paper 116676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ichiro Takahashi, 2021. "An Artificial Wicksell—Keynes Macroeconomy," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-16-6839-5, June.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/46k9rkvut99i7qnn4vqm25t53b is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Harrodian instability in decentralized economies: an agent-based approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 539-567, July.
    16. Pier-Paolo Saviotti & Andreas Pyka¤ & Bogang Jun, 2020. "Diversification, structural change, and economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1301-1335, November.
    17. Ichiro Takahashi, 2021. "Market Mechanism: Stabilizing or Destabilizing?," Springer Books, in: An Artificial Wicksell—Keynes Macroeconomy, chapter 0, pages 1-20, Springer.
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Evolutionary Growth Theory," LEM Papers Series 2024/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1p3k1810c89k3b4gg6n2nuc0m4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/21q7rlmakq8ca9c6o2imhini9d is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fontanelli, Luca & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro, 2023. "International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Evolutionary Growth Theory," LEM Papers Series 2024/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    8. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/46k9rkvut99i7qnn4vqm25t53b is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4hs7liq1f49gh9chdf7r17gam6 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Luca Fontanelli, 2023. "Theories of market selection: a survey," LEM Papers Series 2023/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    14. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5vt1fet9fq9o5pkgj2qh2vn1cm is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2017. "Micro and macro policies in the Keynes+Schumpeter evolutionary models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 63-90, January.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p6go0e900 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Dosi, Giovanni & Lamperti, Francesco & Mazzucato, Mariana & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Mission-oriented policies and the “Entrepreneurial State” at work: An agent-based exploration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1a9acst1l284eo8kvqrqrnlbl1 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/401t6job098n79ch91o9giov9d is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7d4rsl1jm8p58ajgfgslld612 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3qv4spsglp8tmorvev1h0duo4p is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    26. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3s3jn8tt5h9mab7fo128gecbhj is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
    29. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2016. "The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Martin Guzman (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 79-100, Palgrave Macmillan.
    30. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5rtilga41c899ab0rctd3cp2r3 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "The labour-augmented K+S model : a laboratory for the analysis of institutional and policy regimes," Working Papers hal-03443457, HAL.
    32. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    33. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/20hflp7eqn97boh50no50tv67n is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Harrodian instability in decentralized economies: an agent-based approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 539-567, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; granular residual; granularity hypothesis; agent-based models; firm dynamics; productivity growth; investment growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1829. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francesco Saraceno (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ofcspfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.