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Drought hazard assessment in typical corn cultivated areas of China at present and potential climate change

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  • Qi Zhang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Jiquan Zhang

    (Northeast Normal University)

Abstract

Drought hazard is the main restrictive factor in the field of food production in China, and climate change may aggravate it over the long run. The present study aims to assess the potential drought hazard at present, as well as determine future different climate change scenarios based on the data of monthly precipitation and temperature. Drought is defined using the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index. The probability density function of SPEI was used to create the drought hazard index (DH), which provides a comprehensive overview of the frequency and intensity of drought events. The statistical downscale method was used to convert the regional climate model output grid data into meteorological station data for the near future (2020–2050) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results showed that in the baseline (1981–2010), DH is much serious in Jilin compared with Henan. In the near future (2020–2050), DH increases in the case of RCP8.5, and the increased scale is larger in Henan. In the case of RCP4.5, the DH will be flat with baseline in Jilin and slightly increase in Henan. DH may relieve in case of RCP2.6. The results can help to optimize agriculture allocation and policy making with regard to climate change adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Qi Zhang & Jiquan Zhang, 2016. "Drought hazard assessment in typical corn cultivated areas of China at present and potential climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1323-1331, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:81:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-015-2137-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2137-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Omolola M. Adisa & Muthoni Masinde & Joel O. Botai & Christina M. Botai, 2020. "Bibliometric Analysis of Methods and Tools for Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    4. Annelie Holzkämper, 2017. "Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-15, October.

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