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The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation

Author

Listed:
  • N. Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • X. Y. Ni

    (Tsinghua University)

  • H. Huang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • J. L. Zhao

    (Tsinghua University)

  • M. Duarte

    (Duke University)

  • J. Zhang

    (Duke University
    Duke Kunshan University)

Abstract

Interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination among members of the population plays a critical role in serious emergencies such as tsunami, chemical leakage and terrorist attacks as there is no sufficient time for government agencies to notify all of the possibly influenced people within a disaster area. In this paper, we established an interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination model based on human visual and auditory senses to simulate how persons get information and evacuate from their residences or places of work to emergency shelters. Regional evacuation was simulated based on interpersonal evacuation information dissemination by combining twelve subjective and objective influencing factors. Through sensitivity analyses of each parameter including door’s status (open/closed) and personal states (with/without exclamation), sound attenuation caused by story’s slab, background sound, number of information sources, personal curiosity threshold and the probability a person will believe in the information, we propose several suggestions to optimize evacuation information dissemination and regional evacuation. This model can be used to make evacuation plan under the condition of insufficient responding time or paralyzed information networks. The results provide useful references for governmental decision making toward disaster pre-warning and efficient regional evacuation in metropolises.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Zhang & X. Y. Ni & H. Huang & J. L. Zhao & M. Duarte & J. Zhang, 2016. "The impact of interpersonal pre-warning information dissemination on regional emergency evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2081-2103, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-015-2062-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2062-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Nan & Huang, Hong & Su, Boni & Zhao, Jinlong, 2015. "Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 171-183.
    2. Sammy Zahran & Daniele Tavani & Stephan Weiler, 2013. "Daily Variation in Natural Disaster Casualties: Information Flows, Safety, and Opportunity Costs in Tornado Versus Hurricane Strikes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1265-1280, July.
    3. Nan Zhang & Hong Huang & Boni Su & Hui Zhang, 2013. "Population evacuation analysis: considering dynamic population vulnerability distribution and disaster information dissemination," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1629-1646, December.
    4. Adam Pel & Michiel Bliemer & Serge Hoogendoorn, 2012. "A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 97-123, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, N. & Huang, H. & Su, Boni, 2016. "Comprehensive analysis of information dissemination in disasters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 846-857.
    2. Zhang, N. & Ni, X.Y. & Huang, H. & Duarte, M., 2017. "Risk-based personal emergency response plan under hazardous gas leakage: Optimal information dissemination and regional evacuation in metropolises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 237-250.

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