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Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaii

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  • Tiffany Anderson
  • Charles Fletcher
  • Matthew Barbee
  • L. Frazer
  • Bradley Romine

Abstract

Chronic erosion in Hawaii causes beach loss, damages homes and infrastructure, and endangers critical habitat. These problems will likely worsen with increased sea level rise (SLR). We forecast future coastal change by combining historical shoreline trends with projected accelerations in SLR (IPCC RCP8.5) using the Davidson-Arnott profile model. The resulting erosion hazard zones are overlain on aerial photos and other GIS layers to provide a tool for identifying assets exposed to future coastal erosion. We estimate rates and distances of shoreline change for ten study sites across the Hawaiian Islands. Excluding one beach (Kailua) historically dominated by accretion, approximately 92 and 96 % of the shorelines studied are projected to retreat by 2050 and 2100, respectively. Most projections (~80 %) range between 1–24 m of landward movement by 2050 (relative to 2005) and 4–60 m by 2100, except at Kailua which is projected to begin receding around 2050. Compared to projections based only on historical extrapolation, those that include accelerated SLR have an average 5.4 ± 0.4 m (±standard deviation of the average) of additional shoreline recession by 2050 and 18.7 ± 1.5 m of additional recession by 2100. Due to increasing SLR, the average shoreline recession by 2050 is nearly twice the historical extrapolation, and by 2100 it is nearly 2.5 times the historical extrapolation. Our approach accounts for accretion and long-term sediment processes (based on historical trends) in projecting future shoreline position. However, it does not incorporate potential future changes in nearshore hydrodynamics associated with accelerated SLR. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Tiffany Anderson & Charles Fletcher & Matthew Barbee & L. Frazer & Bradley Romine, 2015. "Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaii," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 75-103, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:1:p:75-103
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1698-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark A. Hemer & Yalin Fan & Nobuhito Mori & Alvaro Semedo & Xiaolan L. Wang, 2013. "Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 471-476, May.
    2. Caroline Katsman & A. Sterl & J. Beersma & H. Brink & J. Church & W. Hazeleger & R. Kopp & D. Kroon & J. Kwadijk & R. Lammersen & J. Lowe & M. Oppenheimer & H. Plag & J. Ridley & H. Storch & D. Vaugha, 2011. "Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 617-645, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yashna Devi Beeharry & Girish Bekaroo & Chandradeo Bokhoree & Michael Robert Phillips, 2022. "Impacts of sea-level rise on coastal zones of Mauritius: insights following calculation of a coastal vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 27-55, October.
    2. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    3. Alisha Summers & Charles H. Fletcher & Daniele Spirandelli & Kristian McDonald & Jin-Si Over & Tiffany Anderson & Matthew Barbee & Bradley M. Romine, 2018. "Failure to protect beaches under slowly rising sea level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 427-443, December.
    4. Verschuur, Jasper & Le Bars, Dewi & Drijfhout, Sybren & Katsman, Caroline & de Vries, Sierd & Ranasinghe, Roshanka & Aarninkhof, Stefan, 2018. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Earth Arxiv dysza, Center for Open Science.

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