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Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour

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  • Chris Eves
  • Sara Wilkinson

Abstract

The past decade has seen an increase in the number of significant natural disasters that have caused considerable loss of life as well as damage to all property markets in the affected areas. In many cases, these natural disasters have not only caused significant property damage, but in numerous cases, have resulted in the total destruction of the property in the location. With these disasters attracting considerable media attention, the public are more aware of where these affected property markets are, as well as the overall damage to properties that have been damaged or destroyed. This heightened level of awareness has to have an impact on the participants in the property market, whether a developer, vendor seller or investor. To assess this issue, a residential property market that has been affected by a significant natural disaster over the past 2 years has been analysed to determine the overall impact of the disaster on buyer, renter and vendor behaviour, as well as prices in these residential markets. This paper is based on data from the Brisbane flood in January 2011. This natural disaster resulted in loss of life and partial and total devastation of considerable residential property sectors. Data for the research have been based on the residential sales and rental listings for each week of the study period to determine the level of activity in the specific property sectors, and these are also compared to the median house prices for the various suburbs for the same period based on suburbs being either flood affected or flood free. As there are 48 suburbs included in the study, it has been possible to group these suburbs on a socio-economic basis to determine possible differences due to location and value. Data were accessed from realestate.com.au, a free real estate site that provides details of current rental and sales listings on a suburb basis, RP Data a commercial property sales database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper found that sales listings fell immediately after the flood in the affected areas, but there was no corresponding fall or increase in sales listings in the flood-free suburbs. There was a significant decrease in the number of rental listings follow the flood as affected parties sought alternate accommodation. The greatest fall in rental listings was in areas close to the flood-affected suburbs indicating the desire to be close to the flooded property during the repair period. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Eves & Sara Wilkinson, 2014. "Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1519-1536, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:3:p:1519-1536
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0961-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew C. Worthington, 2008. "The impact of natural events and disasters on the Australian stock market: a GARCH-M analysis of storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes and bushfires," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10.
    2. S. Jonkman, 2005. "Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 34(2), pages 151-175, February.
    3. Chris Eves & Stephen Brown, 2002. "The Impact of Flooding on Residential Property Values in England," ERES eres2002_153, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Terrance R. Skantz & Thomas H. Strickland, 1987. "House Prices and a Flood Event: An Empirical Investigation of Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 75-83.
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    2. Guangxi Cao & Wei Xu & Yu Guo, 2015. "Effects of climatic events on the Chinese stock market: applying event analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(3), pages 1979-1992, July.
    3. Małgorzata Dudzińska & Barbara Prus & Radosław Cellmer & Stanisław Bacior & Katarzyna Kocur-Bera & Anna Klimach & Agnieszka Trystuła, 2020. "The Impact of Flood Risk on the Activity of the Residential Land Market in a Polish Cultural Heritage Town," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mehdi Feizi & Hassan F. Gholipour, 2019. "Drought and Property Prices: Empirical Evidence from Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201916, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Nicholas Pinter & James C. Rees, 2021. "Assessing managed flood retreat and community relocation in the Midwest USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 497-518, May.
    6. Rajapaksa, Darshana & Zhu, Min & Lee, Boon & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Wilson, Clevo & Managi, Shunsuke, 2017. "The impact of flood dynamics on property values," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 317-325.
    7. Paul Frijters & Benno Torgler & Darshana Rajapaksa & Clevo Wilson & Shunsuke Managi & Vincent Hoang & Boon Lee, 2016. "Flood Risk Information, Actual Floods and Property Values: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92, pages 52-67, June.
    8. Pilar Lopez-Llompart & G. Kondolf, 2016. "Encroachments in floodways of the Mississippi River and Tributaries Project," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 513-542, March.
    9. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mehdi Feizi & Hassan F. Gholipour, 2021. "Drought and Property Prices: Empirical Evidence from Provinces of Iran," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 203-221, July.

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