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Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River

Author

Listed:
  • A. Curran

    (TU Delft
    Deltares)

  • Karin Bruijn

    (Deltares)

  • Alessio Domeneghetti

    (University of Bologna)

  • Federica Bianchi

    (University of Bologna)

  • M. Kok

    (TU Delft)

  • Sergiy Vorogushyn

    (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Hydrology Section)

  • Attilio Castellarin

    (University of Bologna)

Abstract

Reliable hazard analysis is crucial in the flood risk management of river basins. For the floodplains of large, developed rivers, flood hazard analysis often needs to account for the complex hydrology of multiple tributaries and the potential failure of dikes. Estimating this hazard using deterministic methods ignores two major aspects of large-scale risk analysis: the spatial–temporal variability of extreme events caused by tributaries, and the uncertainty of dike breach development. Innovative stochastic methods are here developed to account for these uncertainties and are applied to the Po River in Italy. The effects of using these stochastic methods are compared against deterministic equivalents, and the methods are combined to demonstrate applications for an overall stochastic hazard analysis. The results show these uncertainties can impact extreme event water levels by more than 2 m at certain channel locations, and also affect inundation and breaching patterns. The combined hazard analysis allows for probability distributions of flood hazard and dike failure to be developed, which can be used to assess future flood risk management measures.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Curran & Karin Bruijn & Alessio Domeneghetti & Federica Bianchi & M. Kok & Sergiy Vorogushyn & Attilio Castellarin, 2020. "Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2027-2049, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04260-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04260-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Charalambous & Ataur Rahman & Don Carroll, 2013. "Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique to Design Flood Estimation: A Case Study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4099-4111, September.
    2. Jonathan Remo & Megan Carlson & Nicholas Pinter, 2012. "Hydraulic and flood-loss modeling of levee, floodplain, and river management strategies, Middle Mississippi River, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 551-575, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rongen, G. & Morales-Nápoles, O. & Kok, M., 2022. "Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).

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