IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v103y2020i3d10.1007_s11069-020-04116-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Shahzada Adnan

    (COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI)
    Pakistan Meteorological Department)

  • Kalim Ullah

    (COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI))

Abstract

Drought is a silent meteorological disaster that spreads over time, affecting water availability for agriculture and livelihood in any region. The prediction of drought is a complex phenomenon; however, the negative impacts of drought are mitigated by monitoring drought events over a region. The present study provides spatial and temporal drought climatology over Pakistan, using 60-years (1951–2010) observational gridded data (0.5° × 0.5°) of precipitation from Global Precipitation Climatological Center and soil moisture from Climate Prediction Center. Using precipitation and soil moisture datasets, a novel drought hazard index is developed to determine drought vulnerability across different districts of Pakistan. Our findings identified 19 districts that are extremely vulnerable to drought, with northern regions being vulnerable to mild drought, whereas central and southern districts are vulnerable to high drought events. By using standardized precipitation index and soil moisture anomaly, six severe drought years were identified as 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000, 2001, and 2002 in different parts of the country. Deficiency of monsoon rainfall is a major cause of droughts in southern and rain-fed regions. This study is helpful for drought managers, hydrologists, and contingency planners to prepare mitigation and adaptation plans toward sustainable development in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahzada Adnan & Kalim Ullah, 2020. "Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2989-3010, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04116-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04116-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04116-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04116-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiguo Dai, 2011. "Drought under global warming: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 45-65, January.
    2. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq & Cheuk Yin Wai & Nitin Muttil, 2020. "Vulnerability Assessment of Ubiquitous Cities Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    3. Yuk Feng Huang & Ali Najah Ahmed & Jing Lin Ng & Kok Weng Tan & Pavitra Kumar & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2022. "Rainfall Variability Index (RVI) analysis of dry spells in Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1423-1475, June.
    4. Anwar Hussain & Khan Zaib Jadoon & Khalil Ur Rahman & Songhao Shang & Muhammad Shahid & Nuaman Ejaz & Himayatullah Khan, 2023. "Analyzing the impact of drought on agriculture: evidence from Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 389-408, January.
    5. Yang, Beibei & Cui, Qian & Meng, Yizhuo & Zhang, Zhen & Hong, Zhiming & Hu, Fengmin & Li, Junjie & Tao, Chongxin & Wang, Zhe & Zhang, Wen, 2023. "Combined multivariate drought index for drought assessment in China from 2003 to 2020," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    6. Salman Atif & Muhammad Umar & Fahim Ullah, 2021. "Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: Spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2357-2383, September.
    7. Adil Dilawar & Baozhang Chen & Arfan Arshad & Lifeng Guo & Muhammad Irfan Ehsan & Yawar Hussain & Alphonse Kayiranga & Simon Measho & Huifang Zhang & Fei Wang & Xiaohong Sun & Mengyu Ge, 2021. "Towards Understanding Variability in Droughts in Response to Extreme Climate Conditions over the Different Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-28, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    2. Lei Jiang & Yongqin David Chen & Jianfeng Li & Cancan Liu, 2022. "Amplification of soil moisture deficit and high temperature in a drought-heatwave co-occurrence in southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 641-660, March.
    3. Linghui Guo & Yuanyuan Luo & Yao Li & Tianping Wang & Jiangbo Gao & Hebing Zhang & Youfeng Zou & Shaohong Wu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Hailong He & Jungang Luo & Jiwei Zhu, 2015. "Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2885-2903, February.
    5. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    6. Hongli Wang & Yongxiang Zhang & Xuemei Shao, 2021. "A tree-ring-based drought reconstruction from 1466 to 2013 CE for the Aksu area, western China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    8. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    9. Xiaoliang Shi & Fei Chen & Hao Ding & Mengqi Shi & Yi Li, 2022. "Assessing Vegetation Ecosystem Resistance to Drought in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Getachew Tegegne & Assefa M. Melesse, 2020. "Multimodel Ensemble Projection of Hydro-climatic Extremes for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 3019-3035, July.
    11. Vladimir Marković & Imre Nagy & Andras Sik & Kinga Perge & Peter Laszlo & Maria Papathoma-Köhle & Catrin Promper & Thomas Glade, 2016. "Assessing drought and drought-related wildfire risk in Kanjiza, Serbia: the SEERISK methodology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 709-726, January.
    12. Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin, 2019. "Computing the economic value of climate information for water stress management exemplified by crop production in Austria," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 430-448.
    13. Wang, Fei & Lai, Hexin & Li, Yanbin & Feng, Kai & Zhang, Zezhong & Tian, Qingqing & Zhu, Xiaomeng & Yang, Haibo, 2022. "Dynamic variation of meteorological drought and its relationships with agricultural drought across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    14. Pere Quintana-Seguí & Anaïs Barella-Ortiz & Sabela Regueiro-Sanfiz & Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, 2020. "The Utility of Land-Surface Model Simulations to Provide Drought Information in a Water Management Context Using Global and Local Forcing Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(7), pages 2135-2156, May.
    15. Jagadish Padhiary & Kanhu Charan Patra & Sonam Sandeep Dash, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5163-5189, October.
    16. Shan Jiang & Jian Zhou & Guojie Wang & Qigen Lin & Ziyan Chen & Yanjun Wang & Buda Su, 2022. "Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO 2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    17. Araneda-Cabrera, Ronnie J. & Bermúdez, María & Puertas, Jerónimo, 2021. "Assessment of the performance of drought indices for explaining crop yield variability at the national scale: Methodological framework and application to Mozambique," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    18. Corwin, D.L. & Scudiero, E. & Zaccaria, D., 2022. "Modified ECa – ECe protocols for mapping soil salinity under micro-irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    19. L. Lin & A. Gettelman & Q. Fu & Y. Xu, 2018. "Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 407-422, February.
    20. Francisco José Del-Toro-Guerrero & Luis Walter Daesslé & Rodrigo Méndez-Alonzo & Thomas Kretzschmar, 2022. "Surface Reflectance–Derived Spectral Indices for Drought Detection: Application to the Guadalupe Valley Basin, Baja California, Mexico," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04116-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.