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Interactive expectations

Author

Listed:
  • John Foster

    (The School of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia)

  • Burkhard Flieth

    (ITERGO, Thomas-Dehler-Stra, e 2, 81737 M, nchen, Germany)

Abstract

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

Suggested Citation

  • John Foster & Burkhard Flieth, 2002. "Interactive expectations," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 375-395.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:12:y:2002:i:4:p:375-395
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard H. Cohen & Carl Bonham, 2007. "Specifying the Forecast Generating Process for Exchange Rate Survey Forecasts," Working Papers 200718, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    2. Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2010. "Consumer sentiment and countercyclical fiscal policies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 609-618.
    3. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2019. "Different compositions of aggregate sentiment and their impact on macroeconomic stability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 117-127.
    4. Alfarano Simone & Milakovic Mishael, 2012. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, October.
    5. Bell, William Paul, 2009. "Adaptive interactive expectations: dynamically modelling profit expectations," MPRA Paper 38260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2010.
    6. Bell, William Paul, 2008. "Adaptive interactive profit expectations using small world networks and runtime weighted model averaging," MPRA Paper 38027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Paul Ormerod, 2008. "Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with heterogenous, interacting agents," Papers 0807.1639, arXiv.org.
    8. Imane El Ouadghiri & Remzi Uctum, 2020. "Macroeconomic expectations and time varying heterogeneity:evidence from individual survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(23), pages 2443-2459, May.
    9. Bell, William Paul, 2008. "Adaptive Interactive Profit Expectations and Small World Networks," MPRA Paper 37924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Klaus Abberger & Sascha Becker & Barbara Hofmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Mikrodaten im ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Bestand, Verwendung und Zugang," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 1(1), pages 27-42, June.
    11. Shi, Yong & Tang, Ye-ran & Long, Wen, 2019. "Sentiment contagion analysis of interacting investors: Evidence from China’s stock forum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 246-259.
    12. Bell, William Paul, 2009. "Network Averaging: a technique for determining a proxy for the dynamics of networks," MPRA Paper 38026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mark Bowden & Stuart McDonald, 2008. "The Impact of Interaction and Social Learning on Aggregate Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 289-306, April.
    14. Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner & Alfred Greiner & Thomas Kuhn (ed.), 2009. "Recent Advances in Neo-Schumpeterian Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12982.
    15. repec:pra:mprapa:37920 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Reiner Franke, 2020. "Heterogeneity in the Harrodian sentiment dynamics, entailing also some scope for stability," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 347-374, April.
    17. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "European Data Watch: Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 307-319.
    18. Paul Ormerod & Amy Heineike, 2009. "Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(1), pages 15-26, June.
    19. Dilaver, Özge, 2014. "Involuntary technology adoptions: How consumer interdependencies lead to societal change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 138-148.
    20. Westerhoff Frank H., 2006. "Nonlinear Expectation Formation, Endogenous Business Cycles and Stylized Facts," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, December.

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