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Speculative trading with rational beliefs and endogenous uncertainty

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  • Ho-Mou Wu
  • Wen-Chung Guo
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    Abstract

    This paper introduces the framework of rational beliefs of Kurz (1994), which makes the assumptions of heterogeneous beliefs of Harrison and Kreps (1978) and Morris (1996) more plausible. Agents hold diverse beliefs that are “rational” in the sense of being compatible with ample observed data. In a non-stationary environment the agents only learn about the stationary measure of observed data, but their beliefs can remain non-stationary and diverse. Speculative trading then stems from disagreements among traders. In a Markovian framework of dividends and beliefs, we obtain analytical results to show how the speculative premium depends on the extent of heterogeneity of beliefs. In addition, we demonstrate that there exists a unique Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) generically with endogenous uncertainty (as defined by Kurz and Wu, 1996) and that the RBE price is higher than the rational expectation equilibrium price (REE) under some general conditions Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-002-0303-x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 2 (03)
    Pages: 263-292

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:21:y:2003:i:2:p:263-292

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    Related research

    Keywords: Keywords and Phrases: Speculation; Asset pricing; Rational beliefs; Endogenous uncertainty.; JEL Classification Numbers: D84; G12.;

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    Cited by:
    1. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2005. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2017-2065, November.
    2. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
    4. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 2006. "General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 499-524, August.
    5. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Papers 0907.4953, arXiv.org.
    6. Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe, 2008. "On rationally confident beliefs and rational overconfidence," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 381-404, May.
    7. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07.
    8. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    9. Angus A Brown & L C G Rogers, 2010. "Diverse Beliefs," Papers 1001.1450, arXiv.org.
    10. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 157, Econometric Society.
    11. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
    12. Agnes Bialecki & Eleonore Haguet & Gabriel Turinici, 2014. "Existence of an Equilibrium for Lower Semicontinuous Information Acquisition Functions," Post-Print hal-00723189, HAL.
    13. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    14. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Papers 0907.4950, arXiv.org.

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